Borr Drilling operates the world's youngest, most modern fleet of jack-up rigs at a time of structural supply shortage. With US control of Venezuela established, Lake Maracaibo—a shallow-water basin holding 30+ billion barrels—requires immediate infrastructure rebuilding. This creates a perfect storm: global rig scarcity, premium dayrates, and multi-year contracts.
The Math:
Current dayrates: $139,000/day
Venezuela scenario dayrates: $180,000–$200,000/day
Deploying 5–10 rigs generates +$126–$251M incremental EBIT annually
At 5.5x EBITDA multiples, this translates to +$2.66–$5.32 per share upside
Stock target: $15.16–$17.82 (vs. current ~$12.50)
Why Borr Wins:
Scarcity: Modern premium jack-ups are unavailable elsewhere; competitors have old, slower fleets
Timing: Venezuela reconstruction accelerates through Spring/Summer 2026
Probability: 65–70% based on geopolitical and operational factors
Valuation: Trading at 4.5–6.0x EBITDA = attractive entry ahead of catalyst
The Math:
Current dayrates: $139,000/day
Venezuela scenario dayrates: $180,000–$200,000/day
Deploying 5–10 rigs generates +$126–$251M incremental EBIT annually
At 5.5x EBITDA multiples, this translates to +$2.66–$5.32 per share upside
Stock target: $15.16–$17.82 (vs. current ~$12.50)
Why Borr Wins:
Scarcity: Modern premium jack-ups are unavailable elsewhere; competitors have old, slower fleets
Timing: Venezuela reconstruction accelerates through Spring/Summer 2026
Probability: 65–70% based on geopolitical and operational factors
Valuation: Trading at 4.5–6.0x EBITDA = attractive entry ahead of catalyst
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.