Burberry may turn around soon? EW sequence

Jun 15Burberry (ticker: BRBY) reaching ~14 years lows, where the risk /reward ratio for the mid/long term starting to be favourable. I have two scenarios sketched out on the weekly, white being a 5 wave up, in which we finished 3, followed by a yet unfinished irregular flat structure as a wave 4. Yellow suggests a 3 count move up as an (A) wave, working now on the (B) wave, and later (likely several years) a (C) would follow in 5 subwaves.

In yellow I would primarly expect a deeper cut in the (B) wave also as an ABC structure, where we likely nearing the A wave bottom in the foreseable future.

In both scenario a move-up should be imminent, white to start the wave (5) to the upside, and for the yellow it would be the B wave. For the yellow I put there the resistance levels, but be aware, as price cuts deeper (IF), then we need to adjust that red resistance fib box.

Now, the movedown already consist 5 waves, so technicly we could be near to the local lows, and also in support already (hence the post). Next levels to watch: 951, 885, and 834 and 768 as bigger fib support levels.

Weekly RSI is oversold despite MACD is weakening, On the daily we are building divergence already, so far all the meaningful MA's (9/21/50-52) currently rejecting price action, and far below the 200day MA.

Jul 11

Comment

Price fell further as expected, the downside sequence can be counted as technicly full, or nearly full. I can imagine one or two more swindown, since so far there is no 5 wave upstructure in the smaller timeframes.
Primarly I would watch 834 levels, secondarly 765 levels.

Let it be the start of the big white wave (5) OR just a yellow B wave correction, a moveup should be imminent.

Risk-reward is starting to get good, start to scaling in carefully could be reasonable at theese levels. For that (because many people DM-ing me how to scale in) a triangulation method could be a good one (chop off the investment, and add in as price drops to your defined levels, bottom heavy)

Jul 16

Comment

Either we are getting an extended wave (v) for the white, or as an abc, with a very shallow b wave.
For me this movedown now seems unfinished due to the extension; not a problem, getting down to the lower support fib levels. I have sketched out a possible route; as long as we do not have a 5 waves up breaking above first dotted white trendline, there is no clear bottoming signal.

It is reasonable now to expect either one (diagonal) or two (impulse) swingdown now to technicly complete the sequence.
Smaller fib levels to watch where price could react:
690; 661
Bigger fib levels (one overlap, nice confluence with a small one as well): 630; 606, 587.

Below that, it could happen the yellow is unfolding in a more direct downside way; although thats not the primary "expectation", a higher yellow B wave running into resistance at least would be reasonable.

Aug 15

Comment

As expected, price fell further, now reaching the 300% extension of white wave (3). So far i count the price actions as a running flat for wave (4) which is finished and now working on white wave (5) to finish off wave iii. First indication that we are working on wave iv would be to break above the blue-ish dotted trendline in a sustained way, resistance already added.

For my eyes the wave iii however still seems unfinished, BUT on the 1hr/4hr chart bullish divergence is already present, on the daily not yet or not convincing yet - likely under formation. I could count in a different way as well where we already in wave v down, BUT thats less likely.

so far 9/21 day SMA&EMA rejecting price action, others (50/52/180/200) are way above us.