scottybfx

Cheap Oil Isn't Green!

Long
ICEEUR:BRN1!   BRENT CRUDE OIL FUTURES
Oil is going to boom like it never has before, we're going to see oil top $200+/barrel. This will be the result of several interacting factors.

Many soon-to-be vaccinated Americans with government stimulus in their pockets will the hitting the road for epic vacations in the coming months. The entire population has cabin fever, thanks to year-long pandemic lockdowns followed by a harsh, bitter winter. The spring /summer/fall of 2021 will be the summers of the 1960's and Route 66 on steroids. Many folks think they're gonna hit the road and stretch that $1400 as far as it'll carry them, but oil prices are going to put a damper on the drive. The sheer pent up demand is going to push oil very quickly to $75 at a minimum. We'll likely see $100 by early summer.

Biden hates oil , he killed the Keystone XL pipeline on day one in office and has been very clear about his negative sentiment toward pulling oil or gas out of federal land. This is only the tip of the iceberg.

Americans love and drive the wheels off of their behemoth SUVs. These vehicles get atrocious fuel economy and are without doubt viewed as a serious threat to the climate by the green-minded political party now in power. Many investors seem to believe that a simple government decree-- "Only electric cars by 20XX"-- will the the lever that shifts the population away from fossil fuel. So everyone buys Tesla and goes back to sleep. This is incorrect. The true behavior changing lever will be the price at the pump. Gasoline prices will be pushed so high that the only logical response will be to get back into hybrid, electric, or ultra efficient gas-burning sedans. This wave is coming. Governmental policies, taxes, etc, will drive Brent up towards $200 + over the next few years.







Trade closed: target reached: Turns out that Biden don't give a frack about oil. His admin is approving drilling permits at breakneck pace. This is going to naturally limit the price of oil.

I think we'll see Brent run between $75-100 for the near to medium term while Uncle Joe is in office.

I cashed out my proxy oil position which was in FANG, and have shifted gears into a position in USWS. The price structure of oil will foster some good ole fracking.