Historical Support Zone reached for BRZE warrants attentions

Jan 21

Braze (BRZE) analysis on the 1 week.

Recent price action has brought BRZE to a Major Historical Support Zone of roughly $22.77 to 24.00.

There is no price data below this zone.

We've only touched this area ONCE before in October 2022 to January 2023. Which lead to massive rally to roughly $61.00.

This recent move merits Observation and Attention on this stock.

We need to ask and look at further evidence if this price area expresses enough demand for another BOUNCE UP or we continue to SELL OFF.\


We also have a confluence of 4 indicators flashing OVERSOLD conditions on the 1 Day.
The confluence and such Oversold conditions hasnt really been seen in the history of price action for this asset.

This indicates potential for price to bounce from here in my opinion. This zone is also merits solid stop loss. Risk to reward is good in my opinion.

Jan 28

Note

Putting focus on the MACD on 1 Day to make sense of large swings. This also highlights the power of having MACD in your toolbelt. Helps assess when bullish or bearish momentum will come in and how powerful the move could or would be.



So ive analyzed previous 3 price movements in relation to MACD for BRZE.

Ive separated the 3 moves again into 2 zones. Bearish and Bullish zones.

Notice everytime we have Bearish signal in MACD which is depicted by a cross of Orange line over Blue line with downward movement and histogram bars printing Red bars. Price action is met with Resistance or downtrend showcased by red resistance line.

When we get. Bullish signal which is Blue line crosses over Orange with MACD moving upwards and there is Green histogram bar prints. We see UPtrends form.

Notice the 3 movements are of different sizes. There is a reason for this seen in MACD. AND it relates to the 0 level of the MACD indicator. Everytime we've met with 40%+ gains, the MACD lines crossed ABOVE 0 lvl. COmpared to the 18% move where MACD lines were not able to cross ABOVE 0 lvl.

To use this as a tool to predict and understand the probabilities of how our current move will unfold, we have to consider the 3 moves as part of a whole. Momentum works in a way where it has to build up. Think of the 0 level as a cement wall. First time you hit it with a sludge hammer, it may only dent the wall or damage a part of it especially for the first time. After many attempts, eventually you'd break through it. So as per the analogue, 1st attempt build the necessary momentum for the consecutive 2 massive 40%+ rallys.

After the MACD moves bearish below 0 level, it has to rebuild momentum. So with this thinking i have drawn out with arrows of a potential path for our MACD movement in the coming days. (In my opinion)

BUT remember using just 1 indicator to make trades does NOT make a good trade strategy. Consider other facts that support your reason to take a trade.

Feb 3

Note

The 1 Day STOCH RSI and MACD indicate continued bearish momentum with low probabilities of an Uptrend anytime soon. Unless Bullish signals flash with Bullish cross.

Only positive take away is that RSI is flashing oversold conditions but it does not sway the bearish case.

Its likely that the macro trend is overshadowing the shorter timeframes.


This is a look at the 1 Month timeframe to understand the Macro trend seen in BRZE.
We have closed January Below the major support zone. Which warrants caution. Though we have not yet confirmed below, as we would require the next few Monthly candles to determine that.

Notice the MACD and STOCH RSI, momentum indicators. They are crossed Bearish. Its likely STOCH will continue towards Oversold conditions below 20 lvl to build up momentum again.

Price declines are usually associated and continue with MACD and STOCH RSI staying crossed Bearish. So we would need for them to flash Bullish.

Feb 5

Trade closed manually

Realization: Analyzing both BRZE and RBLX, i've come to the conclusion that young publically traded companies with few years of data is something i won't consider to analyze moving forward.

We already work with uncertainty. Why set myself up for failure with less data . Theres plenty of opportunity that exists with more data to make better informed decisions.