Please see previous BITFINEX:BSVUSD analyses for further information
Long story short, COINBASE:BTCUSD was compromised by two competing factions of crypto engineers.
The factions working on the protocol BITSTAMP:BTCUSD couldn't come to an agreement on how to scale COINBASE:BTCUSD .
The disagreement led to COINBASE:BTCUSD being forked resulting in COINBASE:BCHUSD .
But, the factions continued to disagree which resulted in COINBASE:BCHUSD being forked. The fork created POLONIEX:BCHABCUSDT and BITFINEX:BSVUSD .
The disagreements put the 'Nakamoto Consensus' to the ultimate test.
Nakamoto consensus is a name for Bitcoin’s decentralized, pseudonymous consensus protocol. It is considered as Bitcoin’s core innovation and its key to success. The consensus protocol doesn’t require any trusted parties or pre-assumed identities among the participants.
Consensus can be reached by selecting the “longest” chain of valid blocks. In the Bitcoin whitepaper, and some other documentation, it is indicated that the honest chain grows the longest, assuming that 51% or less of the miners are malicious. Therefore, the longest chain can be considered to be the chain with the most invested Proof-of-Work:
In short, Miners use their hash to vote on the Blockchain.
Miners supporting POLONIEX:BCHABCUSDC will move their hash to mine its Blockchain. Miners supporting BITFINEX:BSVUSD will move their hash to mine its Blockchain.
Before the Fork, BITFINEX:BSVUSD camp had over 70% of Miners hash. (Important)
Last week, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) personalities proposed a 12.5% tax on mining rewards that would ostensibly go to funding network development.
Cointelegraph reported last week on the proposed tax published by Btc.top CEO Jiang Zhuoer. The “infrastructure funding plan” would have miners send 12.5% of mining rewards to an entity in Hong Kong. The co-signing entities repped 27% of hashrates. Most controversially, the proposal included “orphaning” non-compliant miners — the practice of removing blocks from the chain that resembles a 51 percent attack.
Critics underscored the routing of funds to a CORPORATION instead of a nonprofit and the absenting of a voting procedure, which would mean COMPANY OWNERS would control BCH development. Other complaints included CHINESE government interference and profitability since the tax would affect miner revenues.
BCHABC's fate will be determined by Miners. When BCHABC's Hash is gone...Game Over.
Pick-up from previous analysis:
Daily Chart: High Wave 3 underway...
Hourly Chart: Completed Micro-wave 1 & 2
Micro-Wave 3 is underway...
Key Levels: $360 & $380
Will update.
FMW
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Micro-Wave Sequence Complete
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Broke $360...
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Next is $380...
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Hourly Chart Update:
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After $380...
Target Area - $429-$493
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This correction sequence should be completed quickly...
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Timeframe: <5 Days
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Daily Chart Update:
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15 Minute Chart (Above)
30 Minute Chart (Below)
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*Corrected 15 Min w/o Blue Lines
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Looking to break $380...
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Daily Chart Update:
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Correction is over...
Should be moving towards the targets...
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When $380 breaks...price-action will test 360...then go higher towards $470
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When $470 breaks look to $620
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Target Area: $620-$858
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Mini Wave Sequence and Correction
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Wave 1:low. If you can count a minor 1-2-3-4-5, you have probably seen the completion of a tiny wave 1 in a new cycle. So now you will get ready to buy on the dip.
In my experience, wave 1 is rarely a clean formation. The markets tend to build a base after a steep increase/decline, and very often we will get repeated tests of new resistance levels.
Occasionally, the move will resemble a wedge, which is known by a special name: diagonal triangle.
Some traders will use oscillators and divergence studies to gain in confidence. What I do is keep Elliott Wave Principle/Fibonacci Analysis as your main tool, and use other TA tools to support your main view.
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We broke through Fib Channel .786 and are testing the $360 level for support.
Still need to break 380...this should be imminent.
Estimated Timeframe for the 1st Target Area is 2 days 12 hours...
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We have completed Sub-Micro Waves 1,2,3,4...
Sub-Micro Wave 5 should begin momentarily...
Waves 1 + 3 trended near equality...
Wave Rule - 1/3 Waves will extend
Looking for Sub-Micro Wave 5 to extend and break $380!
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Fib Channel .786 is now support.
Note: Minuscule Wave 5 Extended
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Daily Chart Update:
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Time to break $380...
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Sub-Waves 1 & 3 trended toward equality (+6.98%)
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S-Wave 5 should be greater than 6.98%
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Immediate Target Hit.
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High was 382.xx.
After hitting the immediate target, the price-action broke down...
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Above: Daily Chart Update.
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If you implemented Wave Sequence STOPs you made out quite well with this pullback.
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Will provide further analysis shortly.
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Above: 5 Min Chart - Recovery
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We have had a Reflex with a 5 Wave Sequence
3rd Wave Extended
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Sub-Micro Sequence Wave 1 & Wave 2 were 'normal'
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This is where the price-action broke down....
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We broke $380 but not strong enough to keep the rally going without a correction sequence.
Near-Term Target is still in place.
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I hit a STOP at $346.00
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Looking for a breakout in less than 5 days...
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Sub-Wave 3 Target Area:
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$355-$398...
Looking for an extended 3rd Wave since the lower degree was extended.
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We should be moving towards Sub-Wave 3 Target Area very soon.
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Looking for $398 to be taken out in this next wave...
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Estimate for S-Wave 3 to begin moving higher:
<6 hours
Target Area: $355-$398
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Daily Chart Update:
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6 Hour timeframe got extended due to a complex correction...
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New Sub-Wave 3 Target Area:
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Target Area: $346-$389
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We should be getting extremely close to a new wave sequence higher!
So far, the new coronavirus, dubbed COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
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I think this is the REAL reason for the SP's declines...
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The Fed is in one hell of a situation...
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The Dollar's Chart is extremely bearish...
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HYG Chart is extremely bearish:
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If anyone is falling my SP500 Analysis this chart should be very familiar...
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755 Days = 18.15%
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547 Days = 6.32% (Without REPO)
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197 Days - Billions of Liquidity Daily = 20.07% (W/ REPO)
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Research firm Reorg reported that 2019 was the busiest year for chapter 11 filings since it started tracking them in 2015. For chapter 11 cases filed by companies with more than $100 million in liabilities, the filing frequency increased 24% from 2018. One hundred fourteen companies with liabilities exceeding $100 million filed for chapter 11 protection in 2019, compared to 87 in 2018. The most cases were filed in the energy sector, followed by the consumer discretionary and health care sectors.
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The report from the 36-member Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) highlighted that compared to previous credit cycles, today’s trove of outstanding corporate bonds is of lower overall credit quality. This may render the non-financial corporate sector and broader economy more vulnerable to the negative effects of an economic downturn.
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The volume of corporate debt hit an all-time high of $13.5 trillion at the end of 2019, but the overall quality of bonds fell below levels seen before the global financial crisis, according to a new OECD report.
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Corporate Debt and Record CEO Resignations...hand in hand?
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IPSASB consults on revenue and transfer expenses standards The International Public Sector Accounting Standards Board (IPSASB) is consulting on three inter-connected exposure drafts which are intended to pioneer new approaches to accounting for some of the most significant transactions of public sector entities Defining Your Role in Implementing New Revenue Recognition It's 2020, time for FASB’s Accounting Standards Codification 606 to kick in. Is your firm ready to handle it?
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In this publication, we’ve summarized the new accounting standards with mandatory[1] effective dates in the first quarter of 2020 for public entities, as well as new standards that take effect in annual 2019 financial statements for nonpublic entities. Those effective dates reflect the FASB’s recent decision to defer certain major standards. We have also included links to BDO’s guidance on each pronouncement.
Boeing's CEO is out. Here are the 37 most dramatic exits in a record-breaking year for CEO departures.
During the first three quarters of 2019, 1,160 CEOs left their positions, according to the staffing firm Challenger, Gray, & Christmas.
This figure exceeds the number of CEOs who departed during the same nine-month span at the height of the 2008 recession (which saw 1,132 CEO departures). The tech sector has seen the second-highest number of CEO departures, with 154 executives in that industry leaving their positions.
In the first week of December, four CEOs announced their resignations: Susan Desmond-Hellmann at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Oscar Munoz at United Airlines, Larry Page at Alphabet, and Mark Okerstrom at Expedia.
The latest departure is Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg, who resigns amid fallout from two plane crashes that occurred under his tenure.
Salesforce co-CEO Keith Block steps down Disney's Bob Iger Is Out In Big CEO Shakeup
About $11 trillion of corporate, sovereign, and securitized bonds in 24 currency markets trades at negative yields, comprising about 20 percent of the value in these markets.
Optics of Market Crash and Crypto Market Boom (Not Ideal)
Sellers will have to cover very soon...
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Immediate Target of $270-$300 remains...
Timeframe remains...
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Chart Update:
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SP500 V. TOTAL (Crypto Market) V. BSV
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We are watching the Old (rigged) Monetary System fail.
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Wait for it...
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30 Second Count:
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1 Minute Count:
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Watch the Narrative shift when the Crypto Markets move higher and the Stock Market moves lower...
Very few people understand what is occurring...
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Update:
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Squeeze should be coming off...
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Almost 26 days of being squeezed lower...
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It will be like a rubber band when it comes off...
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Just as one could get a complex correction in the form of a double zigzag, one could also get a complex combination of two flats! Not surprisingly Elliott called it a double flat! (If you get a combination of three flats, it will be called a triple flat) Just like a normal flat will have as its internal waves a 3-3-5 pattern, so also each of the two flats that combine using an X wave in between will also have a 3-3-5 pattern.
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There are four main categories of corrective waves: Zigzags, Flats, Triangles and Combinations.
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An important clue is when an complex correction appears either after wave 1 or wave 3, (i.e. if either wave 2 or wave 4 is an irregular correction) then the next impulse wave will be very strong. For example, if wave 1 and 3 were normal waves, and wave 4 was an irregular correction, you can almost be certain that wave 5 will be an extended.
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Minuscule Wave Sequence is holding...
Positive sign...
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Note Extended S-Wave 3...
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1 Second Wave Count:
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Be careful here...
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Price-Action Broke...
Selling into support...
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ZigZag Correction...
5-3-5
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March 7 - I said I expect a Strong Breakout in Less than 5 days...
March 12th is the 5 day mark...
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BSV vs. SP500 since Dec. 31st 2019
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Smart Money Index
Smart money index (SMI) or smart money flow index is a technical analysis indicator demonstrating investors' sentiment. The index was invented and popularized by money manager Don Hays.[1] The indicator is based on intra-day price patterns.[2]
The main idea is that the majority of traders (emotional, news-driven) overreact at the beginning of the trading day because of the overnight news and economic data. There is also a lot of buying on market orders and short covering at the opening. Smart, experienced investors start trading closer to the end of the day having the opportunity to evaluate market performance.[citation needed] Therefore, the basic strategy is to bet against the morning price trend and bet with the evening price trend. The SMI may be calculated for many markets and market indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, etc.)
Interpretation: The SMI sends no clear signal whether the market is bullish or bearish. There are also no fixed absolute or relative readings signaling about the trend. Traders need to look at the SMI dynamics relative to that of the market. If, for example, SMI rises sharply when the market falls, this fact would mean that smart money is buying, and the market is to revert to an uptrend soon. The opposite situation is also true. A rapidly falling SMI during a bullish market means that smart money is selling and that market is to revert to a downtrend soon. The SMI is, therefore, a trend-based indicator.
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HODL...
Great buying opportunity...
The Thesis: Monetary System (Credit System) will fail and Crypto will become the new credit system...
Reminder: Crypto has a set supply...
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This is pure panic, irrational selling...
Crypto is a Complete 180 degrees from the current credit system...
Crypto will not fail...
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I mine BSV...
My earnings tripled during this downturn which leads me to believe someone, most likely China dumped a large amount of hash. It seems like there is an all out effort to suppress the crypto market.
@graciadevii, Yes, sorry for the delay. I'm back online now and will be updating the idea regularly.
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@FibMarketWatch, I noticed the double bottom at 285 which extended to 268. Looks like it wants to test 270 as the final support to shoot up to 318. That or it will create another S Wave within the main wave in the bulls favor. Then back down to 300, finally breaking 320 resistance. From there your analisys shall unfold.
Looking forward to watching this happen.
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@FibMarketWatch, can bsv jump to target without move of BTC?
FibMarketWatch
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@antidota, Yes.
astromaniak
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Real Bitcoin. People uderstand this is this year.
BTC is not Bitcoin after 2017.
Technical-Difficulties
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@astromaniak, Craig is a fraud. the tulip trust is just a way for him to keep kicking the can down the road. people really dumb enough to believe him and "his patents" lol. patents defeat the whole purpose of blockchain.... bonded courier? LOL had nothing but PUBLIC keys.. this guy is a fraud. amazes me people buy into his bullshit
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@astromaniak, what does it mean for you the "real bitcoin" sir?
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@antidota, Best version. The one that scales, the one that has secure 0-conf, the one that has the activated scripting language, the one with the lowest fees by far, the one with the user friendly wallets with paymail addresses, the one that has micropayments. This is what Bitcoin was meant to be, hence real version.