This is just an idea I charted back in early October. Putting it here to see others' thoughts. I have 3 theories on how this market cycle is going to end. This is 1 of them which is quite bullish and is reflected by this chart:
Early Jan will be the peak of the altcoin season hence we drop below the 2017 BTC.D but then instantly pump back up. The whole market dumps early January based on this idea as per 2018 January. February we then get a cat bounce as ETH2.0 is announced and/or is anticipated. But this bounce will prove the bear market is upon us as a week or 2 before the ETH2.0 launch (I expect around late Feb or early March) will be the mother of all dumps. At this point, if you HODL'ed during the dump from early Jan, it's probably best to sell on this bounce and perhaps leave a small amount for speculation.
@TheTradingWoodworker, Looks like it's playing out in the overall trend movement - not exactly how I predicted but close enough. We're likely to see our blow off top this month for alts which can potentially signal an end for this mini cycle and we get another May 2021 crash only to go up again a few months later. Adoption of the technology and gaming is leading us to this... that's just my view. Keen to hear other thoughts.
AlphaBravoCharlie77
⋅
@yas_btc_eth, I guess those of us who have been around long enough would understand that charts show only possibilities, and not are not crystal balls :) I agree that the overall movement has adhered to your forecast quite nicely! Volatility seems to be flattening quite a fair bit, investors also seem wary of pumping in money and I'm not sure if there will be any parabolic move so soon. I suspect that the ETH.D and OTHERS.D will continue trending upwards together with BTCUSD. Ie a repetition of Jan-May'21, with ETH.D and OTHERS.D upwards (with ETH.D trending upwards more than OTHERS.D), BTC.D downwards, and BTCUSD upwards. Blow off in 1HCY22, and then BTC.D trending upwards. However, as we all know, crypto is volatile and unpredictable. So I guess our jobs is to identify possibilities, and position ourselves accordingly to achieve victories (instead of a big V Victory) no matter which possibility pans out. Just my 2 cents!