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JamesRennie
Jan 7, 2022 10:52 AM

Why I never liked the Alt season naritive. Long

Market Cap BTC Dominance, %CRYPTOCAP

Description

For months BTC.D has been range-bound between 47.68% and 40.18%. I keep hearing Alt season is coming. When looking at RSI and MACD I don't see strong downward momentum. RSI does not even have much room before it would be oversold. It also has a clear bullish divergence on the weekly chart. Altcoins are further on the risk curve than Bitcoin.

Comments
q5dmhtnqn7
Atlcoins will melt faces
JamesRennie
@q5dmhtnqn7, Ok to be clear dominance of altcoins vs Bitcoin is a generalization of all coins. Where a skew of altcoin change happens predominantly from the largest by market cap. Meaning many small coins could and likely will outperform Bitcoin. TA is about probabilities. So understanding risk-reward. During a time many alts go on sale is it better to try and pick the odd winner or buy the sale.
waverijnfrank
\when the Btc . D go up .. Alts will be destroyed
JamesRennie
@waverijnfrank, BTC.D is more likely to mess up the FOMO of pumping alts and instill fear rather than kill those projects. Time horizon is really important here.
Bijan_ghasemi49
Mercy
QuineMD
The only way for btc to really pump again is now for profits fom these alt rallies to pour back Into btc.

Potential w bottom here for btc.d and a breakout will see alts bleed/sideways action before they take off again.

Then potentially a major alt rally follows paired with the SEC case ending with XRP.
JamesRennie
@QuineMD, Any expected time frame on XRP case? Generally when BTC.D has pumped in the past the pattern apeared like this. 1. Liquid Bitcoin supply goes down a lot in a dump. 2. The price starts moving up on Bitcoin mostly among large holders and long term holders. 3. BTC.D moves up enough that alt holders that is normally people seeking the highest gains see BTC outpace them and dump their bags. 4. BTC goes into FOMO and people start saying altcoins are useless. 5. Money moves from BTC holders that are taking profit into discounted alts.
mercifulDirect69172
Why has kishu and other memecoins been going up while everything else is plummeting
JamesRennie
@mercifulDirect69172, Great question go on Coingecko and look at the top 100 coins sorted by 7-day performance. You can clearly see that market has crashed this week but a few coins are up a lot. BTC.D is all coins vs BTC with more weight towards larger market cap coins. Some altcoins could go 100x and BTC.D would not change by 1%. While Bitcoin outperforms alts the risk of being in the wrong alt is higher. It's not I don't own any alts it's % of alts vs BTC that is considered.
erikmorgan97
Lol btc already lost 60% Dominance in 5 years , btc slowly dying
next 5 years under 10%
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