• No real change from my original post on BTC.D SHORT. • Just some minor adjustments to update the chart. • Furthermore, I’ve put in Elliott waves to further highlight the similarities between this bullrun and the previous. • Wave C will become more apparent when the 20W SMA crosses over the 21W EMA. • By the way, as per my original post on BTC.D SHORT, NFTs are booming.
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OK. I'm not sure why the parallel channel appeared for no good reason on my chart. It's not supposed to be there.
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No change. Just an update to show how nicely the Fib levels have been working.
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• BTC.D cycle has lengthened. • Firstly, this is a good reminder that the crypto space is relatively new. • Correspondingly, we should not be deterministic given how few data points we have. • Thirdly, it is also a good reminder that forecasting tools that have only been validated against the US Stock Market might not wholly apply to the crypto space. • Or, at the very least, these tools ought to be adapted for use in the crypto space.
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• Just a simple progress update, but using line instead of candles. • Things are going as per planned. • As per my Four Seasons Model, I still think BTC will peak in 1HCY22 (maybe 2QCY22), with BTC.D reaching ~34.5%. • We need a BTC.D weekly close below 39.6%. This will probably happen after BTC recovers from the current doldrums, and gets back above ~53K.
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Important milestone given the thesis: BTC.D just closed the weekly below 39.56%. Let's see if it holds.