The entire market seasonality is getting a bit cold, risk-on bets are fading. Unless other markets show clear signs of continuation, it's looking like a reversal. Although I think alts will make up a bigger piece of the pie this time, and BTC.D will peak around 60%.
Idea is invalidated if BTCUSD makes a huge surprise rally above 65k (unlikely but possible)
I think alts will make up a bigger piece of the pie this time!
Can you explain more plz
fringe_chartist
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@yulo2009, sure!
I joined the scene as a Bitcoin maximalist at heart about 8 years ago. It was the only crypto that wasn't an imitation, or that hadn't already failed (Chaumian E-Cash etc.). The rest were mostly just "trying to be like Bitcoin", which leaves only a Bitcoin monopoly, if in fact every coin is just a fork of Bitcoin. Which is what the space mostly was, in early 2012-2015. In this early stage, I think it makes sense for Bitcoin to be 90% of the space, and to have BTC.D at 90%. It's the only real innovation thus far.
But now this is not necessarily true at all. While there are a lot of new copies of Bitcoin, there are many many projects with completely different goals and outlooks, which have somewhat come to fruition and are mostly still being developed.
With this in mind, I look at Bitcoin as more of a pillar of an ecosystem, rather than a currency or a choice. Bitcoin to me is a base settlement layer, a minimalist scripting language (bitcoin script), a transaction network, a network of miners, and so on. None of these aspects of Bitcoin were regarded as infrastructure at first, but rather "the things of Bitcoin, the only crypto that mattered". But this has faded as a narrative, as other cryptos were able to meet the needs of some users.
And so I think the realization of Bitcoin as infrastructure is a big leap. It's as if we suddenly have roads, and now people can envision things to use on those roads (things that work on top of Bitcoin's settlement layer like Bitcoin lightning, or sidechains, etc.) where they couldn't have before. If we look back in time, things like railroad and roads were invented because we could already envision businesses (travel, delivery services) that would work on top of this infrastructure. The first companies to facilitate this would become huge conglomerates in addition to the railroad companies.
But this is not necessarily true for crypto. We didn't know we needed crypto until it arrived, and we still don't really know what to use it for, but we have some ideas.
To answer your question: I think the upper bound on the crypto total market cap is huge because we don't yet know what it's actually for, other than some global-scale economy. The infrastructure of Bitcoin is a large part of the market cap so far, but anything revolutionary that can be built on top or coincide with it, will increase the bounds of the total crypto market cap, but not necessarily expand Bitcoin's market cap. And these things won't necessarily compete with Bitcoin as the same type of infrastructure, they could be services or different types of infrastructure.
Can you explain more plz