But it’ll be short lived. Many will mistakingly recognise this as “alt token” season, it’s not. It’ll be a relief rally on steroids for long suffering alt token holders. Use it as your exit from this awful asset class. This idea expires by the end of January 2026 at the latest, unless a development occurs that changes that outlook from the data available today.
The above 3 day chart of Bitcoin dominance forecasts a Death Cross print circa December 15th. Technically speaking, it is the 3rd three day Death cross to print on Bitcoin dominance. The others happened on May 2016:
At the time the OTHERS Total (first 100 alt tokens minus the top 10 generally speaking) rallied from $100m to $66billion over 590 days, when many made fortunes and watched them melt away in 2018. Today XRP has a market capital almost twice the size of the 2017 alt token bubble at $123billion. Aye.
The 2nd three day death cross was in August 2020, Bitcoin dominance rallied almost 30% on the cross and the OTHERS Total rallied 1000% over the following 255 days.
The take away, every 3 day death cross print is followed by a strong alt token performance.
“Wait wait you said until January 2026 and you present evidence for previous death cross resulting in alt token rallies that lasted multiple months, I’m confused!”
Why I know it won’t last long
A few of the long term followers among you may remember this idea “Imminent 2-day death cross - Is Bitcoin about to crash 30-40% ??” from 2022. The idea discusses the relevance of the 2 day death cross (not a 3 day as discussed above). That is when:
The 2 day 50 Simple Moving average (blue) crosses down the 2 day 200 SMA (Red) with price action under the 200 SMA.
If you look left you’ll notice every Bitcoin bear market is confirmed with this event. A 2 day death cross is forecast to print around the end of the month. It does not mean price action will drop like a vegan at a BBQ, but rather complain at first before being overcome by the stench of gravity.
Bitcoin 2 day death cross forecast, December 31st, 2026
Will not bore you with past crosses, you can do look them up yourself. What is clear, if not factual, a 2 day death cross is the start of a minimum year long bear market.
Conclusions
So yes, the alt token Santa rally is here, jingling its little bells and waving shiny green candles in your face like some bloke at a Christmas market trying to sell you socks you don’t need.
And like all Christmas magic, it’ll vanish the moment the lights go off. Not an “alt-season,” not a new paradigm, not “the big rotation we’ve been waiting for.” It’s one last sugar rush before the dentist arrives.
The real Grinch is waiting at the end of the month: the 2-day Bitcoin death cross, the one that actually matters. The one that says, “Right, fun’s over, pack it up, winter’s here.”
If you’re still clinging to low-cap jungle rubbish by February, that’s no longer optimism, that’s performance art. Use the rally. Exit the nonsense. Save yourself before the lights go out and the floor collapses faster than a crypto influencer’s moral compass.
Ww
Disclaimer
==========================================
This is not financial advice, obviously. If you read this and think, “Right, I’m putting the house, the kids, and the dog into ShibaBonk Inu because Santa said alt season!” that’s on you, mate.
If the market pumps, you’ll claim you’re a genius.
If it dumps, you’ll blame me. Either way, I’ll still sleep like a baby.
Do your own research.
The above 3 day chart of Bitcoin dominance forecasts a Death Cross print circa December 15th. Technically speaking, it is the 3rd three day Death cross to print on Bitcoin dominance. The others happened on May 2016:
At the time the OTHERS Total (first 100 alt tokens minus the top 10 generally speaking) rallied from $100m to $66billion over 590 days, when many made fortunes and watched them melt away in 2018. Today XRP has a market capital almost twice the size of the 2017 alt token bubble at $123billion. Aye.
The 2nd three day death cross was in August 2020, Bitcoin dominance rallied almost 30% on the cross and the OTHERS Total rallied 1000% over the following 255 days.
The take away, every 3 day death cross print is followed by a strong alt token performance.
“Wait wait you said until January 2026 and you present evidence for previous death cross resulting in alt token rallies that lasted multiple months, I’m confused!”
Why I know it won’t last long
A few of the long term followers among you may remember this idea “Imminent 2-day death cross - Is Bitcoin about to crash 30-40% ??” from 2022. The idea discusses the relevance of the 2 day death cross (not a 3 day as discussed above). That is when:
The 2 day 50 Simple Moving average (blue) crosses down the 2 day 200 SMA (Red) with price action under the 200 SMA.
If you look left you’ll notice every Bitcoin bear market is confirmed with this event. A 2 day death cross is forecast to print around the end of the month. It does not mean price action will drop like a vegan at a BBQ, but rather complain at first before being overcome by the stench of gravity.
Bitcoin 2 day death cross forecast, December 31st, 2026
Will not bore you with past crosses, you can do look them up yourself. What is clear, if not factual, a 2 day death cross is the start of a minimum year long bear market.
Conclusions
So yes, the alt token Santa rally is here, jingling its little bells and waving shiny green candles in your face like some bloke at a Christmas market trying to sell you socks you don’t need.
And like all Christmas magic, it’ll vanish the moment the lights go off. Not an “alt-season,” not a new paradigm, not “the big rotation we’ve been waiting for.” It’s one last sugar rush before the dentist arrives.
The real Grinch is waiting at the end of the month: the 2-day Bitcoin death cross, the one that actually matters. The one that says, “Right, fun’s over, pack it up, winter’s here.”
If you’re still clinging to low-cap jungle rubbish by February, that’s no longer optimism, that’s performance art. Use the rally. Exit the nonsense. Save yourself before the lights go out and the floor collapses faster than a crypto influencer’s moral compass.
Ww
Disclaimer
==========================================
This is not financial advice, obviously. If you read this and think, “Right, I’m putting the house, the kids, and the dog into ShibaBonk Inu because Santa said alt season!” that’s on you, mate.
If the market pumps, you’ll claim you’re a genius.
If it dumps, you’ll blame me. Either way, I’ll still sleep like a baby.
Do your own research.
Note
A lot of public and private questions on this idea. Influencer "Benjamin Cowen" name came up a few times with recent videos such as "Bitcoin Dominance To Soar Again?", clearly he thinks so. When influencers start talking about FED balance sheets instead of the chart, my eyes roll. You know how I feel about influencers.What does the chart say?
The 9 and 10 day candles just confirmed bearish engulfing candles as resistance on the 50 SMA
9 day
Okay, what's the big deal about that? Zoom out and Look left. The chart is in complete disagreement with Ben's update.
Trade active
The death cross has printed. It is perfectly normal to see dominance rise until market structure before the big correction. Structure is at 61%, expect this area to be clipped before downtrend continuation.During this period of structure re-test the OTHERS total climb 70% on the previous death cross. And the one before that, that was the 2016 period you wish you'd long'd before 2017.
Hang in there you desperate alt-token traders, your patience should be paid off soon. Two warnings:
1) The is not a market wild run for all alt tokens. Far too many tokens in circulation. Be selective. Don't chase the XRP, SOLANA, ETH, you're not in this for 100-200% return, no one is. You want the 10x'ers.
2) Don't head for the exit on 40-50% wins. If that's win for you, exit crypto entirely and stay with stocks!
Note
It has begun. Now please remember point 1 above, I'm certain influencers will be all over it with conviction that "alt season" is here over the next few weeks. That is not what this is.Note
34000% return in the last 24hours for BIFI, did you catch it?!Note
Bitcoin dominance appears to be breaking down.Note
Don't ignore this.1) This is a magnificent bull trap unfolding (until proven otherwise)
2) Bitcoin.d dominance is following the GRM (yellow dotted line), this is bearish for dominance.
3) The GRM is also matched with the lower side of the Gaussian channel, again bearish.
4) Historically speaking, a collapse in dominance is typically seen.
5) The collapse lasts for a handful of weeks, and then it's over. In this instance, around 42 days. (P's remember the study in time post?)
6) The performance throughout this month (January) will be seen as a greed light for things to comes for the rest of the year. Until proven otherwise, this is a falsity. A bull trap. Look left.
6 day chart
Note
An alarm as old as my last hair cut just popped off.. a 10 day alert advising on a break of suppor. That's a 4 year channel.Rumour has it alt token holders never need a hair cut.
10 day chart
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.