* My original idea on BTC.D (BTC.D short till end-Aug, then long in Sep; see link below) remains unchanged. * BTC.D has remained beautifully within the original channel. * This update is just to point out the uncanny similarities in BTC.D's behaviour between this and the 2017 bull run. * If BTC.D behaves the way it did in 2017, then it will follow the current channel down to 33.75% (1.618 fib between bottom and top) by Nov/Dec'21. * Though I've my doubts regarding the timing, I've significant confidence that BTC.D will continue it's descent. * Let's sit tight. Be patient. And monitor both BTC and ETH's monthly RSI.
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Things are getting a bit boring, so here are some thoughts in an interim update. * Michael Saylor just announced that he bought some more BTC. * If history rhymes, BTC will pump 5-10% these few days and then dump thereafter. * (I don't think Michael Saylor is pumping and dumping, but others might be.) * Anyway, what this means for BTC.D is that BTC.D will be staying in the lower half of the channelas BTC's price increases, and then bounce up to the upper half of the channel when BTC dumps (and maybe re-test the 20W SMA). * This will give us time for things to get more interesting in 2H-Sep'21 or in Oct'21.
i think the opposit.btc need to go to the new ath and then real altseason will start
AlphaBravoCharlie77
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@mazyarapps, your thesis is not incongruent with mine.
Alts grow as BTC grows. However, BTC.D tends to grow when BTC grows below its 20W SMA, but BTC.D drops when BTC grows above its 20W SMA. BTC.D has been in the recent channel because of the former, but will be trending in the lower half of the channel or breaking to the downside as BTC exceeds its ATH, and especially after it breaks the 73.5K resistance level.