In this analysis I want to make an educated guess on when the next bull-market (read: altseason) will start using the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart.
An uptrend in Bitcoin with a falling dominance would be the ideal case for alts.
As seen on the chart, the altseason previously started by a top in the BTC.D and a consecutive fall afterwards. My best guess would be that BTC.D will continue to rise until it hits the top diagonal resistance.
In other words, Bitcoin will likely outperform alts for the time being. Later, likely after the halving, alts will start outperforming Bitcoin for 6-12 months and lead to huge returns.
Who knows how it will play out this time..the bitcoins in ETFs won't just get sold to buy altcoins. People in these ETFs aren't the ones that have wallets, have CEX accounts or use DEX's which could easily mean less money flowing into alts.
FieryTrading
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@Bylo-Selhi great insight, things could be very different indeed based on the ETF
stickybun
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The general adoption of crypto is growing beyond the ETFs. In my view the ETF can be a catalyst to generate more BTC profits for non-ETF holders who will then cycle through the usual USDT-BTC-Alts flow a few times. Let's see which one plays out.
Bylo-Selhi
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@stickybun Agreed. What is certain is that the amount of money ultimately invested in altcoins will be a lesser percentage of money invested in crypto as a whole than before. The question is will alts outperform btc, by how much and which ones
fastprofittrader
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Yes, alt season began
averkie_skila
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It's a logarithmic mapping. On the standard chart, the candles have already approached the diagonal. The question arises, how to look more correctly?
ToddRSimmons
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My thesis is that BTC.d will continue to trend up until after the Fed lowers rates. That’s likely months away, not imminent or even a few weeks. It may however correlate quite well with your graph above.
MyCryptoParadise_Nathan
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The detailed examination of BTC.D and its implications for altcoins is valuable.