As far as I know, I'm one of the few who successfully called the top in Bitcoin dominance back in 2019. Here is the original analysis:
Another one from 2019:
Here's my most recent analysis on Bitcoin dominance. You can press play and see how it declined precisely to my target level, although XLM failed to achieve my price targets for this leg, unfortunately.
From October, 2020 when dominance was 63%:
Plotting the relationship between DXY (dollar index) and BTC Dominance:
Speculating about a bull run for altcoins well in advance:
Target reached from this May, 2020 analysis (although a bit later than I was expecting):
All this time, I maintained my belief that Dominance would ultimately drop to the broadening wedge support, which FINALLY happened recently. Since reaching the bottom of the wedge, Dominance has bounced and Bitcoin has attempted to establish a new support level around 30k. From a rational/market cycle standpoint, it seems that Bitcoin could be ready for its next wave up - and it may leave alts in the dust yet again, for a time. However, the decline in altcoin ratios may not last particularly long, if the previous cycle is any indication (see the area circled in yellow). Oscillators have some room to run, but Bitcoin dominance still looks extremely bearish on the monthly timeframe. The monthly MACD only recently flipped red, and we just experienced a bearish cross of the 9 EMA over the 50.
I don't expect the bearish trend for Dominance to change, even if Bitcoin breaks to a new ATH soon. Instead, I think it can head towards 50% (or a little higher) before alts have their turn again. In the final phase of the cycle, I think things could get even more ridiculous with altcoins, so I am ultimately targeting a new low for Bitcoin dominance. Let's see how it plays out! Of course, the cycle may have already ended, and I'm preparing for that...but so far things are playing out as I would expect them to, in the middle of the cycle, despite Bitcoin dropping below some key MA's. The bullish structure for the market is maintained with prices and indexes holding above the 9 month EMA for now.
On the bearish side for the market - I think dominance will also INCREASE if Bitcoin heads to lower levels from here, with alts dropping extremely hard. So it's important to recognize that this could happen, even though I don't want it to. If the cycle is over, I'd expect the move up for Dominance to be slow and painful, killing off many newly hyped projects with no substance, just as it occurred in 2018-2019.
This is not financial advice! This is for speculative purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
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About my personal plan: I'm still in my alts here, as I think there could be a bigger blowoff later in the year or early next year. My initial risk has been out since January, but I added to my LTC position recently at $175, $135, and even caught the bottom at $119.
For those entering the market now, it seems Bitcoin might be the better buy, at least until it regains some dominance. Those who are waiting to buy alts with Bitcoin might benefit from waiting. But I suppose dominance can make a surprise move down as well.
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So even though my initial risk was out, that trade allowed me to catch some lows on LTC that I wasn't expecting. Hopefully that turns out to be a good play.
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If dominance can break the 9 week EMA (currently at 46.80), it can head towards the next major horizontal level. There's a chance that dominance cannot break the EMA, and heads down immediately from here. In that case, the first target would be around 33%
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Dominance made it slightly above 49%, which may be it for the bounce, and alts could continue to outperform for the remainder of the cycle, or at least until Bitcoin's next top is confirmed. Buying pressure on ETH has been too strong to allow for 50%+ dominance. Could still get there if Bitcoin heads back towards ATH. So let's see.
Alts (aside from perhaps ETH, ADA, and DOGE) are definitely oversold, so if BTC goes up -- which it may have started to in the past few days -- expect another altseason down the road
VictorCobra
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@drcorvinus, Yup, though I think they could lag initially for a few weeks, hence the point of this analysis :) Thanks for your comment!
-Victor Cobra
drcorvinus
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@VictorCobra, thanks! BTW, one indicator for me that alts are oversold and unlikely to crash in the near future is Coinbase's 3X Long Sh*tcoin Index Token price (BULLSH*T). Back in Sep-Dec 2020, when alts were flat, it was usually in the $250-500 range. By contrast, it was $4,981 on Feb 21, $19,155 on Apr 16, and $2,974 on May 18. Right now it's $120-130.
bstew76
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I think you are spot on. Personally I think this next major leg on BTC will be the last of this cycle - not sure how high it will go though. I think alts will pump during BTC rise but like you said after blow off top is when things can get crazy fast - hopefully we are right, I’ve been steadily accumulating alts all year
VictorCobra
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@bstew76, I think BTC can go max 4x-Ish from the 65K top, so if this is not the start of a bearish cycle (we don’t know for sure yet, but I’m not convinced it’s over), I think the first leg takes BTC to $120-130k. Then alts can run. Bitcoin then would double once more to $200-300k, with alts continuing to go nuts until the cycle peak sometime late this year or early next year. This is my speculation, but will probably play out differently. And of course ready to be completely wrong.
-Victor Cobra
harchenko93
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50% in 2-3 weeks. 28-30% in July (defi season), then btc bullrun with alts dump till December (dominance 60-65%) and final altseason to 15% of dominance
VictorCobra
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@harchenko93, I generally agree, but not sure about Defi season. ETH 2.0 has been delayed until next year (shocker), so I don’t know if ETH will start outperforming until late summer/autumn. I suppose that means Defi could still do well...but I’d like to see some other legacy coins like LTC and XLM regain some dominance. XRP will also probably do well if the lawsuit is dropped.
-Victor Cobra
harchenko93
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@VictorCobra, thanks! I see a lot of defi projects dumped hard since last summer and havent yet recovered
VictorCobra
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@harchenko93, A lot of those defi projects will probably never recover (lots of scams), but Defi is a good application of crypto, so I think the legitimate ones should do well.
-Victor Cobra
Crypto-Quantum-Fox
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yep that one you circled is where we are if i had to guess. ALT relief incoming. but need that wick on btc dom to be a bit bigger imo. so short term maybe more pain.