So guys, I'm doing an extra BTC Dominance idea. All just the way I like it, the power signs on the small timeframes led to power signs on the big timeframes!
I have no doubt that BTC D are ending the Wyckoff accumulation, and this monthly candle in the narrow SOS range is meant to test the lower boundary around 46.8-46.5. The July candle should be green! A one-month cross from the Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen will form! Why? Because an exit from the squeeze on the monthly chart has begun. We have the first gray cross on the 1M chart since 2020.
While people are looking at the 1D, 4H chart the main event is happening on the 1M chart. It's like the inertia of an electric train. It's heavy and crushing.
And above this SOS range we have a nice «thin neck» of a red Kumo cloud. If you've watched my charts before, you know that I always pay close attention to those «thin necks». These are places of likely breakdowns up or down. So, we have a charging cannon of a monthly cross of indicator lines in July 2023. We already have a gray cross on SQZMOM (read LazyBear for more).
What else? The Cluster Algorithm has crossed the 70 line! It may well go above 90. I think this process will definitely continue until mid-autumn. But since this is a serious time frame, I give the maximum growth of dominance up to halving. Until BTC halving, i think. I noted April 2024. The disappointment will be killer. Since the enchantment was naive.
I know I have an unpopular opinion. You don't have to read it. Good luck.
P.S. Remember! Dominance can grow on the fall of Bitcoin. And this will mean that altcoins fall x2 or x3 deeper.
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Check out what happened in July 2018 with Dominance.
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BOOM!!!
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If I was wrong about anything, it was speed of formation of the cross. Already the June candle will be green.
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Once we saw 6 consecutive red 3 month down candles. How about 6 green 3M candles up?!
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The neck of the monthly cloud is very thin. This is where the dominance will go up.
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Well, here's a bullish signal on the monthly timeframe. While others are looking at the 4 hour, 1 day charts, right now on the monthly chart the Kijun-Sen and Senkou-Span A crossover. The candle is above the Kijun line and is inside the cloud. How much will it take for this structure to shoot up?
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So, nothing foreshadowed a possible rise on the daily chart. The structure is like a reversal (I can clearly see if you open the daily chart, even my disliked head and shoulders (which is drawn incorrectly by every other trader here)). Oh, and the weekly overbought..... Hell, well it's rising. And I submit that this one kijun/senkou span A on the monthly timeframe is enough for me. It's an ultra rare event. But it's so influential that the candle came back above the red cloud on the daily chart as well! Oops. Now let's imagine that bitcoin will fall and dominance will rise further. How is that possible? Very simple, it's pumping liquidity out of TOTAL2 to the minimum.
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Hi. Well, my idea that dominance can rise during a whole market decline seems to be getting a cautious confirmation. I'll take some more time to observe. Take a look at this. The monthly candle is cutting through the upper boundary of the cloud. There is a high chance of a March candle opening above the cloud. And that would mean two things. Theoretically, the dominance could hold for two years in the 56.27-67.40 range. I concede that candles could stay in that range for two years. This is an extremely long Kumo cloud, and there is still no hint of the next green forming. It probably won't start forming until later this year. See I have indicated the floor and ceiling with purple lines. I have also made 4 squares, indicating two down cycles and two up cycles. I draw the boundary of the second green square to the point where there is still a cloud boundary. At this point, this movement may not have reached even half of its potential.
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There is an agonizing breakdown of the structure on the 3-day chart.
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Alas. Looks weak, and it looks like Monthly won't be able to do what I've been waiting for. Well, let's get ready for the alt season!
Morning mate, followed you for a bit now - your logo caught my eye - LOL. Love the content. However, it's a clear C-Clamp that has formed on a monthly TF & this usually indicates downside & / or sideways action. C-Clamps act like magnets for PA. Also, PA tagged the liquidity above, shown by the rejection of January's & December's candles on the flat SSB & the historical KS. Just my 2c, but I think we're gonna have some fast & hard downside soon.
@averkie_skila, if only people knew how bad things really were/are/going to be.
averkie_skila
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@Vlad_Tepes, Different people's knowledge is not the same. Some already got it right. Some will only understand. Someone will understand part of it. Some will never understand.
miladchikol
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thanks for your analysis
NoNSence
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BTC.D 15-20% dominance will be very realistic
averkie_skila
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@NoNSence, Based on what are you counting? Based on your perceptions? And what are your perceptions based on? I stated my idea earlier. We have before us the Wyckoff Accumulation Model, which has passed all its phases in 2 years and is now committing the SOS event. Just open up some introductory course on Wyckoff theory and read on. And if it is SOS then the next few months will be a dominance rally. And that too is quite realistic. Objections?
harchenko93
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What are your targets for btc d at altseason? 47-48%?
averkie_skila
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@harchenko93, 47%. The monthly tenkan-sen line runs there as support. However, the breakdown is also possible below, with the subsequent return to it. But let's observe. Some rightly say that there is room for a move up to 58%. Of course, a drop from 67% would be more epic.
harchenko93
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@averkie_skila, thanks for answer. I expect 47-48% at may maybe, after that slow growing to 57% until the end of the year, where btc will find it's new ath level. And after that full altseason with goals about 35-30%. What do you think?
Keep up the interesting charts. Cheers.