Everyone Longs to BeLong

A close look at the CME futures BTC1! chart tells us that we're still in up trend, clear as day:

1. there's only one clear bottom
2. bull volume is rising
3. we're in a clear upwards channel
4. we're above EMAs, golden cross, fanning up
5. divergence on RSI and EWO caused wave 4 correction

Bull targets:
- 8800 (2.618 of wave 1, 100% of wave i + iii, 100% of wave i)
- 8950-9050 (78.6 of prev swing, -0.236 algo target)

Bear targets for wave 4 (another leg down is possible):
- 7750 - EMA50, 1.618 of wave 1
- 7550 - 38.2% correction of wave 3
- 7400 - EMA100

As Bitcoin depends heavily on the futures, it makes more sense now to analyze the futures chart other than all of the BTCUSD charts.


Good Luck!

This is not a financial advice. The market is prone to manipulation and unpredictable. I'm not responsible for possible losses.

Comment:

if you cut out the weekends - it's a clear up trend.
weekends produce unnatural wave extensions complicating the count, unnecessary dips on indicators and false low volume swings/bottoms.
It also reshuffles the volume making the trend unclear.
All changes are reversed/synced with the futures on mondays.

Same goes for all other alts depending on Bitcoin - weekends produce unclear unnatural wave counts.

Zooming out to D1 also clarifies the bottom - you are supposed to use the filled candle, not an empty wick for the bottom.

Same channels, slightly skewed targets:

Bull targets: 8700-8850, 9050
Bear targets: 7800-7850, 7700, 7600

Comment:

GBTC Options is another popular bitcoin proxy to look for possible Bitcoin trend direction. This one could bounce down from EMA resistance, have mixed volume and no golden cross - not clear.

Comment:

Tensorcharts is the best tool for volume/order flow analysis. It has combined order book heat maps from multiple exchanges and a free volume profile. Tensorcharts tells us that we're currently trading in a range 8000-8300 (look for yellow boxes - large buy/sell wall orders)
tensorcharts.com/s/vFUVnSTa

Comment:

Tensorcharts zoomed out H1 history view shows clear bounces from yellow buy/sell walls (8500) and a volume profile. Use Bitmex, M5 for volume analysis (highest volume exhange). Use keys S,R,V,X etc.
Keep an eye on trades feed and order book. You can also plot some S/R and MA studies for volume.
tensorcharts.com/s/IcqrReLB

Comment:

The sky is clear on tensorcharts, no sell wall at 8300, you can see some buying
tensorcharts.com/s/jchplAWW

down channel - bull flag on the futures chart with target 8950. Waves 1-2 of wave X up (followed by wave Y down) or wave 5 straight up are in.

Comment:

Also increasing buy volume on the futures. Rejection by EMA100 and another leg down to the channel bottom (7650) is possible - does not invalidate the up trend (only the current 1-2 wave count up from 7800 local bottom), becomes a longer WXY correction.

GBTC is above EMAs, could still pullback a bit, but sell volume is decreasing

Comment:

Seems that we are now building a triangle abcde just having retested the Wykoff spring. Sorry, no uptrend for today. There's a sell wall above us on tensorcharts again, and we have just touched the pitchfork median line and could not cross it up. On the bright side we're still above EMAs and 8000 most of the time. Notice volume consolidation before a big move, V-shaped recoveries and many expanded flats on the way up.

The breakout will probably happen tomorrow after a monthly close. Don't expect a huge move at once, it should move up in a decent wave then pullback etc marking the beginning of a big move. We could also go lower first to form a new spring followed by huge upthrust like before.

Comment:

Looking at the futures chart, first we have been rejected by D1 EMA100 and just now had another leg down of wxy wave 4 after hitting a sell wall and bouncing from the upper channel boundary towards lower.

Bear targets:
- 7500 - 38.2% of wave 3, 100% of w, 38.2% of the wave 0-3 move, EMA100, -0.236 algo target
- 7300 - 50% of wave 3 EMA200/SMA100, D1 EMA50, 38.2% of prev swing, lower BBB boundary, -0.618 algo target
- 7100 - 61.8% of wave 3, 161.8% of w, D1 SMA50, 50% of the wave 0-3 move, -0.1 algo target

Bears are not done yet because sell volume is increasing
Critical level is 7300 confluence zone - will shift bias to bearish.
BBB = Bitcoin Buyers Box/Club

Comment:

We don't have lots of support volume wise. Medium size orders (orange boxes) appear on tensorchart starting from 7600. If you start seeing yellow boxes - that means a large order buy wall is in place and we could see some bounce/up side
tensorcharts.com/s/RMtVkiBQ

Comment:

We now also have EMA 12 26 down crosses on all TFs except D1. On D1 it should happen around 7200 and will signal the daily trend change - continuation of the bearish down trend for the short term.

There's currently a death cross only on M15 and H1. But it could propagate to larger TFs to confirm the reversal for a longer term.

Comment:

a death cross is EMA 50 x EMA 200

Comment:

sorry, I mixed up the colors, on H1 we only have a EMA50 x EMA100 down cross (only half as bad), not a death cross, but it still could happen. On M15 there's a death cross but it could always be invalidated by another move up in a few hours.

Comment:

Macro Update: On a macro scale we're boxed between W1 EMA50 and W1 SMA50 being the recent resistance and above 61.8% ATH 20000 retracement that keeps us from falling, consolidating along the pitchfork upper channel.

Using the rule of threes:
- it's the 3rd retest of a major fib level (yellow spots). 38.2%, 50%, now 61.8% and we managed to close and stay above it. Being a major S/R area it's basically the only thing that holds us.
- it's also the 3rd major SMA retest: SMA100 (yellow dotted line), SMA100/SMA200 and now SMA100 again and possibly SMA200 soon (blue dotted line). But we can also call it a rejection by SMA200 already.
- and it's the 3rd retest of EMA200 and we have successfully broken it

We have possibly already reached the peak momentum of the bounce and have a divergence. This new top can become the new supply line for the upcoming down trend bending the price along this line, not allowing it to go up.

On a Weekly SMA20 has already crossed SMA50 down. EMA20 has not crossed EMA50 yet. It's supposed to point to a longer time bear trend. Will see how it plays out.

FOMO will probably not kick in until 10000-11000. So, pumps are our only hope and we can still see a leg up to around 8700 (pitchfork upper channel) but chances are decreasing.

Comment:

Buy walls at 7700 and 7600 on tensorcharts. We should finish wave v (ending wedge in c of y) and could be going up in wave 5 in a few hours after the monthly close. Kills shorts.

Comment:

We have reached all bear targets and are definitely in a bear mode now:
Y > 1.618 of W - shifts bias to bearish
broken below the median line - bearish
sell volume increasing on H1,H4
broken below H1 EMA200, H4 EMA200, D1 EMA50
broken below BBB boundary
death cross on H1, soon on H4
EMA 12 26 crossed on H4, on D1 soon - will change the daily trend. Also crossed on a Weekly.
bear cross on D1 MACD
bearish engulfment on a weekly
we are hanging by a thread at 61.8% retracement of wave 3 on our way down

We're going to 61.8% of the entire swing (6800), could see some bounce from there. H&S reversal pattern takes us down to 6050.

Comment:

Also take a look at Woobull's NVT Ratio. It measures blockchain activity and has predicted all major corrections of BTC since 2014. We're now in a bubble similar to July 2014 on our way down or will go down soon after a few more peaks on the indicator.
charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-ratio/