Lord_Ashdrake

BITCOIN December Forcast

HUOBI:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
After the dump from the smaller triangle we have entered the larger triangle again. (same top area, different bottom area)

We can see some existing bullish orderbooks and insititutional investment present around key support levels on the way down as was saw when we dumped to 2060, the price immediately got shot back and then pumped on the MSFT             news.

Right now we have 2 options and an inter triangle trading range (which might proove profitable or not depending if we break the triangle or continue the pattern, so far is is looking that we're hovering over the bottom of the triangle)

If we break the bottom support level , we might see a spike back to the low 2000-2060 range before we see how much the orderbook will be bought up

If we break upwards we have 2 key lines that we will bounce on 2280-2340 which is the range of the previous triangle and then again on the way around 2420-2450 which is the previous 4h pivot point

Somewhere along 365-390 we also have the very big bear downtrend line from December 2013. That plus current support are making a large descending wedge which technically means that the price should pump. Given the fact that we've went this far into the wedge , the breakout price is actually quite close (we broke it when we pumped in NOV)

So in my opinion the plays are like this

1) You can trade the triangle but i dont recommend it at all, as it can break down
2) Buy if it breaks triangle on the top, and keep adding to it if it breaks the big bear trendline (make sure you have a few Daily candles done not just a wick which happend in NOV)

3)Sell if it breaks on the downside but keep a close eye on it and keep your position controlled. The end of the wedge is relatively close so we could theoretically break out of the pattern at any time and break it fast (like MSFT             breakout was) which was also a large Stop Hunt( tm             ))

Some people most notably DanV and a few others are poiting that the true bottom of the wedge will be around 250. I am not as PRO in Elliot waves as they are, but that might happen or it might now, but you have to keep this in mind.

Also keep in mind that if we do break $275, and if we break $262 (which weas the high of the prev pump) then its gonna be blood in the street, etc etc.

Regards
Thanks for posting Ash!
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PS: Please use "Make it Mine" from the Share Button so you can see the lines more clearly, the chart is kinda full with data so that is recommended
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drei4u Lord_Ashdrake
Nice analysis. Thanks.
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