The technical on look extremely good atm. The 50 day moving average is aligning closely with the 20 day moving average on a base with breakout level above 1510. The recent candle shows that this might potentially be a with a neckline that area. We are also seeing a decline that has been touched 3-4 times, and consolidation near a breakout point of that . Moves to a then consolidation near them are usually .
has moved over 50 after being under 50 for a whopping 40+ days. whats interesting though, is while under 50, the daily still never got below 30 except for one quick dip one day. This suggest bulls could've have been accumulating at this level and has found phenomenal support as buyers quickly appeared, and sellers did not feel urgency to take liquidity.
As for fundamnetals. I believe everything is priced in, but at the same time it is important to note that somethings "can't" be priced in because their effects require the news to become real. For example, during the tech bubble everyone expected the influx of discount brokers to cause such a surge in retail activity. A lot of people said "The news is priced in" but once the retail investors started opening accounts and buying stocks at an unprecedented base, there was no way to price in that news. could see similar things with the tidal wave of news regarding NYC regulation, Stockholm ETN and alpha point. Everyone says the news is priced in, but the effects of such news are very hard to predict.
The money in "news" plays is more in antiquating news as well as the sentiment regarding news. if the news pieces that came out lately had come out in 2013 they would've caused 50%+ increases in a matter of minutes. Thus from my angle I feel the future news flow for looks good.
Regardless, I want to be clear, I value technicals at a 10:1 ratio with news/fundamnetals, so that is why I am posting this chart, the news is just to put technicals in perspective and to contextualize whether the market will have something to "Grasp on to" if a breakout does happen.
Conclusion:go long now stop losses at 1460 area.