Xetsu
Long

Confluence of Technical factors makes bitcoin a buy

OKCOIN:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
160 0 0
I've been bullish on bitcoin ever since i noticed we were nearing an apex breakout on a triangle (My previous chart showcases this). After breaking out of said triangle the reaction has been...not as great as I expected. Regardless the overall Bullish picture continue to builds as Bears continue to have trouble bringing bitcoin below 220, and this most recent dump under 230 and then back up the next day shows that bulls continue to lurk.

The technical on bitcoin look extremely good atm. The 50 day moving average is aligning closely with the 20 day moving average on a base with breakout level above 1510. The recent engulfing candle shows that this might potentially be a bullish inverse head and shoulders with a neckline that area. We are also seeing a decline Trendline that has been touched 3-4 times, and consolidation near a breakout point of that trendline . Moves to a trendline then consolidation near them are usually bullish .

RSI has moved over 50 after being under 50 for a whopping 40+ days. whats interesting though, is while under 50, the daily still never got below 30 except for one quick dip one day. This suggest bulls could've have been accumulating at this level and bitcoin has found phenomenal support as buyers quickly appeared, and sellers did not feel urgency to take liquidity.

As for fundamnetals. I believe everything is priced in, but at the same time it is important to note that somethings "can't" be priced in because their effects require the news to become real. For example, during the tech bubble everyone expected the influx of discount brokers to cause such a surge in retail activity. A lot of people said "The news is priced in" but once the retail investors started opening accounts and buying stocks at an unprecedented base, there was no way to price in that news. Bitcoin could see similar things with the tidal wave of news regarding NYC regulation, Stockholm ETN             and alpha point. Everyone says the news is priced in, but the effects of such news are very hard to predict.

The money in "news" plays is more in antiquating news as well as the sentiment regarding news. if the news pieces that came out lately had come out in 2013 they would've caused 50%+ increases in a matter of minutes. Thus from my angle I feel the future news flow for bitcoin looks good.

Regardless, I want to be clear, I value technicals at a 10:1 ratio with news/fundamnetals, so that is why I am posting this chart, the news is just to put technicals in perspective and to contextualize whether the market will have something to "Grasp on to" if a breakout does happen.

Conclusion:go long now stop losses at 1460 area.

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