Decision point at the top of a 7 month resistance

OKCOIN:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
Hi guys, just going to keep calling out trades as I see them. Will try to keep my directional bias as an aside though. We'll just try to find some good spots to trade and leave it at that. If it's screaming we'll scream.

Anyway been looking at this a few days straight now and probably been a little too active on the lower period signals. Was really chasing shorts which in hindsight still seems okay, but don't let that bias sink in. The good news is we're on the right spots. We're seeing price action from these levels, so far.

For this spot, I need to detach my opinion so we can just talk about the spot. I'll post the trade scenarios below, which are fairly set now, and see if we can find an edge on direction as we go.

I love the bullish trend here but call me a pessimist it's too close to call in the short term.

This looks gross. I don't give this trade I high chance of success.

This is the range we're going to need if we want to short.
Comment: If the market starts giving the signal that shorts might be good, this entry is probably too high. It would be better to watch it and pick a spot.

If you're just going to throw in orders, if shorts are going to be safe, I think here is probably where you find out.

Hold up for the longs.

If I had to pick a spot long right now this would be it. Buying a higher low on a retest of that 7 month ascending channel. If we're still going up soon that should be a good place to try and get long.

Not great cover though so wouldn't be shocked to get waxed here if we're not ready for up. If it blows this spot you know to wait for the down leg.

I would get in front of this trade before the short though just in case we're really breaking out of this 7 month channel. That could be pretty explosive.

That long just. Kinda what you want to see too. Fills on a wick and rejection of the left straight away. Usually means it was a hot price. Could be safe here for a while.
Comment: This is kind of funny. Noticed a bit of a triple bottom here on wicks so I drew a line. Noticed it played on the pump and kept looking back. Looked like halfback or something on the 1K run so drew those fibs. OKC bad place for this but I use the first pump not the second because that's where all the effort was.

What a coincidence.

There's the stop on that long. Knew it was a bit high but for a minute there it looked good.

This spot could still be great. Important to watch what happens here. I would try it again right away on a retest of these lows if the volume looked okay.
Comment: Hope that long didn't get waxed just because it was on that big fib.

Would not beileve how many times this has ended up being the trade:

I'm counting that last one as a stop and this one I'm just showing you for what a better entry probably was having known about that fib.
Comment: If you were watching and not just trying to call the spot ahead of time, this is probably where you would have gone. Same exact R:R just anywhere on the candle following the volume burst. Way safer spot and you didn't have to predict a level.
Comment: Ugh, sorry, I'll try and be more diligent with editing and posting the write charts if price action keeps up.

Comment: I wasn't watching enough but I would have preferred that long over our first. If it comes back, we'll take it if its a higher low just to take a proper shot at that long.

Yeah this is where we should have been first time if we weren't trying to get in front. Volume puts in the range than grab it on a low volume retest if it holds a higher low. It didn't here and if you're good you probably manage to escape this one, but we'll count it as another stop on the system.
Comment: If you're active it's worth taking those long shots. Like I said about this spot, if it doesn't hold up you know to wait. So we chased it there. Let's just hold off and see what this pullback brings us. This could be as good long cover we're going to see for a while.
Order cancelled: Weren't really thinking shorts there and our entry was too high. Cancel that short for now.

So two stops trading this 7 mo channel top. I'm not done. Let's keep watching it.
Comment: Ugh guys remind me to stay on the 4h+

I don't like trading smaller intervals anymore because I'm looking to swing.
Comment: System update if you're keeping score at home;
(100 risk/trade)
+ 5R (+500 = 500)
+ 10R (+1000 = 1500)
- R 14 (-100 = 1400)
- R
- R
- R
+ 10R (+ 1000 = 2100)
- R
- R (-100 = 1800)

9 trades // 33% winners @ ~8R
Comment: If anyone's reading through this, I'm doing this as a public experiment on a trading strategy.

All we're trying to do is put heavy positions on pivotal points with minimum stop. We know we're going to be wrong a lot because we cut the risk so short. That's okay - as long as we make it back in an R multiple high enough to cover our losers. I shoot for 10R knowing I take roughly 1/5 winners.

If anyone is interested in contributing to this type of discussion, feel free to chime in any time. I was doing this in the trollbox before but I think this is a better way to thread the ideas. Pretty crude so far but something like this may help people just getting started. It will definitely help me stay accountable to my ideas.

I've been really active here because I'm watching price action but it's not how I trade anymore. I'll try and slow it down a bit. I only want the mint entries from the 4+ really because I want to be able to ride them for a while.

I don't really know how to articulate this other than I can feel the chess being played now. Very clear technicals disguising a break in the opposite direction is not really something I take as coincidence.

Waiting for something to speak to me.
Comment: I'm really interested in how this 7mo channel action plays out as well.

Haven't really moved. Seeing lower highs on decreasing volume (no demand) on the daily. Already got gamed big once on this signal a few trades again so a little shy now. You never like to short an uptrend like this but it's the most obvious trade sticking out to me right now. We'll take it to measure the system but I'm probably just watching here.

Some big levels here that can change things in a hurry. Let's see how they play.

Still haven't really moved. If you took that short you probably either took a small winner or have been buffed in the chop. We'll count it as a 1R loss.

We're still playing on this 7 month ascending channel. Super bullish to extend and hold the range like that coming out of this trend. Volume isn't giving us much of a confirmation with decreasing volume on lower highs still on the daily and 4H.

I don't like shorting this but there might be some range here if we drop this level. At the same time, I've already seen at least one big technical blowout by market makers on this rally.

That's where the technicals fall apart. For me, volume is so important because it's the only thing I really trust. If I see a 10x avg volume burst on the 15m that means a lot more to me than any signal derived from days of low volume chop.

You can try to get in front of movement, but if you're not positioned at this stage, you're almost better just waiting for the whales. If you're paying attention, it's pretty hard to hide that amount of money on the move.
If you're not reading through the updates check out this historical fib:

aurie aurie

Looks like the long just filled. Great possible play on the 7 mo pattern.
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