Maddie
Long

Possible breakout @ 3 october 2014

BTCCHINA:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
1375 15 22
Hey guys :)

As I promised yesterday here is my long awaited chart with description. The trend lines that I drew in this chart are very important resistance/support lines. For the people who told my I'm a bit to positive this is just another way to confirm my chart a posted yesterday.

So lets start with the RSI . We've noticed in the last chart that the RSI consist of four phases while were in a rally. For this chart there are just only two phases. The phase from below the 30's to above the 70's and vice versa. So were seeing that the rally starts when were @53 than going up to 70.
We also noticed that in may the same thing happened as normally the only thing that wasn't was that we went back to below 30's.... For over the last three years this only happened after a big rally. So we could say that the rally of May was a real really which happened a bit to fast. The positive thing is that we didn't break out of the major pattern as you can see in the chart :) . This had something to do with the major trend line that could be broken @ that time. When the rally stopped the trend broke. For now were again below 30's for the second time. It could also be possible that we go back to below 30's one more time but this didn't happen before in BTC history. This means that we need to go back to around 53 and than the rally will slowly start. As long as we stay between the red lines in the chart there is nothing to worry about.

Okidokie now let's go to analyze the chart further. We saw two rallies in 2013             who looked almost the same! Until may the pattern of this year looked the same but than the little bubble stared to raise. The only thing were i'm worry about is that after the failed bubble of May the bottoms didn't got higher like we saw before....) We got above 70's which is normal. Normally it consolidates around 53 but it didn't. On the chart we see a raise thats a lot faster than in the rallies before. We take the days to predict when the new rally in fractal sercomstances. 92/83*70=77,59 so +/-78 days. It only took 5 days longer. Now analyze this years bubble. 166/92*83= 145 days + 5days = 150 days. The rally will take place between the 3th and the 8th of october if the same pattern will be followed. So guys this means there is so much more to come :)

Richard Brown, executive architect, IBM: "So my view's quite clear. I believe cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is the first example, I believe they're going to change the world..."

Also take a look @ the chart that I've made to confirm this idea!
Very strong resistance points coincidence? Or not?


Hope this helped you further and don't forget to like :)
Have a good day!
Hey Maddie,
would you like to give us an update on this chart? BTC broke through the lower support line here, so do you think October, 3rd is still a valid date for a possible major breakout? Thanks! :)
Reply
Maddie Grinny
Hi there!

Of course I can :)
First, we broke out of my most important trend line, this happend with a lot of pressure and FOMO but if didn't went down as far as I thought it would go so that's a good sign. We didn't broke out point after the big rally @ around 2000CNY.
Second, the phase that I drew on the RSI is during a bit longer than I was expecting, nothing to really worry about just keep watching that 2000CNY.
Last, don't know if you noticed but on the 1 day were having bull div! :) This is possibly a sign that a breakout still could happen although we broke out of the triangle! I really don't know anymore if this will be the start of the (big) rally but this could take us in an uptrend again!! (between 3 oct and 1 nov)

Hope this helped you a bit :)
Good day!
+1 Reply
Maddie Grinny
snapshot
+1 Reply
would make a nice bday present
Reply
Great chart Maddie. I often wonder myself if the Nov 2013 bubble could be compared to the June 2011 bubble, & the May 2014 bubble to the Jan 2012 bubble. If this is the case we could be another year off a new all time high!
Reply
Maddie Emanance
Thankyouu! Wow mann I just took another look @ the chart. There could be a very very good possibility your right!!If you compare the bubble of 2013 with the one of 2011 they compare to each other but the (small) ones of May 2014 and jan 2012 compare even more!! I'll take a further look @ this and see if I can make a new analysis about the date that the next bubble is coming in. This is because the pattern from 2011 till 2012 seems to be a lot longer and bigger than the bubbles in the years after 2012! If it follows the same pattern as in 2012 this would mean also that the new bubble won't go that high as we would expect so no ATH....
+1 Reply
Maddie Emanance
The only different thing I just spotted is that we didn't got back to 30's @ bubble of june 2011 ....
+1 Reply
Emanance Maddie
Actually I think it very nearly hit $32 on MtGox at the high of the June 2011. Unfortunately this data is missing from TV's charts but you can see it on some scripted charts like on the following link:
BTC Prehistoric v1
.
Reply
Maddie Emanance
Thanks for showing that!
There are a lot of compromises between both bubble, but there are also things that doesn't compare. For now we have to wait and see were it goes.
Thanks for noticing this, it's really helpful :)
+1 Reply
I second the "Great chart Maddie!" motion. :)
It's really intriguing, especially your bar counts for the pennants.
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