BTC-e numbers show we've broke the year long downtrend, almost exactly at the point my arrow and green squiggles suggested. Expect up and down sideways movement for the next 7-10 days as we continue to test the upper limits of this year long downtrend.
We can't consider a breakthrough until we've tested the level a few times and moved above it. . BTC-e daily high price is currently at the meeting point of the downward trend, so we may go down a bit right here for a day or a few, then we should re-test the same downtrend level (red dashed line).
Red dotted line shows our current upward momentum since Jan 12th or so, which is extremely positive. If this establishes a baseline for the new lows on the new uptrend, then we will see $282 low for May 1st and approximately a $300 low for Jul 1st which would show a 6.2% minimum increase in value within 60 days. These are lows, so the swings to the high values will likely hit 10-20%, if you can close at the top.