Bitcoin - Breakout or Breakdown?

BTCCHINA:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
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The Bitcoin             price is at a decision area on the monthly chart between going back into the old uptrend channel from the year 2012 and earlier or falling back into the downtrend channel which started in November-December 2013 with the burst of the bubble and the fall of the MtGox exchange.

Breakout: Above 3350 CNY            
Breakdown: Below 2000 CNY            

The risk of a downtrend channel:

Original chart created two months ago:
OHLC bar instead of Candle version:

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