Imminent Short-Term Reversal

UPDATE: Pattern failure. Looks like market is currently in a wave 4, about to enter wave5. Alternative explanation would be bull pennant with a $10~ target. Good luck!

The chart shows a butterfly pattern (purple), indicating a possible reversal. The pattern indicates the testing/re-testing of a critical support/resistance level. In this case, it's hitting against a key resistance level after several attempts. I expect a reversal (opinion). If I'm wrong and the level is broken, there'd likely be a sharp upward trend.

With these patterns, we expect to see a quick, sharp "testing" of the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ -- red lines on the chart). Ideally, the prices should briefly pass through them, then fall back below. Alternatively, they might go up and down through the PRZ several times and then fall. If the pattern fails, prices will plow on thru and the pattern will be broken.

The blue shows last week's bat pattern ( Both of these patterns indicate tests and pecking at the resistance levels above. It's likely that the reversal will be short-term, and that eventually the resistance level will be broken.

Note that I've indicated to take quick profits and then prepare for an upward move. The butterfly pattern is typically associated with sharp reversals. I'm in disagreement with the textbook here (and elsewhere!). Another possibility is a larger downward move (ie towards $350, $300, $50). I will personally be using the alligator indicator (on the 1H or 45M timeframe) red-line-cross method to determine my exit. (The alligator models elliot wave , so this is an excellent tool for exiting. I recommend reading Trading Chaos 2nd Edition.)

I could go on with contrary and concordant analyses..but I'm not sure anyone actually reads this (or cares) lol.
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