Main fundamental drivers until year end: - China: capital outflows due to yuan devaluation (reinforced by stronger dollar: Trump/higher expected inflation/Fed hike in December?) - Segwit: positive technical improvement for bitcoin's scalability and transaction speed - India: 500 & 1000 rupee notes banned sparks confidence crisis in the currency - Italy: Monte Paschi bail in + referendum (Dec 4th) (could revive Euro crisis) - Austria: elections (Dec 4th), held again because result overturned earlier this year, Freedom movement neck and neck with Far right movement (could revive European Union crisis)
Fundamental drivers in 2017: - United States: Trump presidency uncertainties (trade wars/America first/strong dollar could spark emerging markets economic/currency crises) - United States, Europe, Asia: debt levels skyrocketing (debt ceiling issue in the US in March), increasing share buybacks allowed by Q.E. make stocks and bonds overvalued (could trigger stock and bond market crashes) - France and Germany: elections (could revive European Union crisis) - Financial products: Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust waiting for approval by the SEC (coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-solidx-bitcoin-etf/) and CME indexes, next step CME Bitcoin Futures ? (cmegroup.com/trading/cf-bitcoin-reference-rate.html) (both will be good to reach investors and attract capital) - Sweden, Ukraine, Australia: next countries heading for a cashless society (global war on cash: thenewamerican.com/economy/economics/item/24661-globalist-war-on-cash-accelerates)
Bitcoin has a very low correlation to other assets and profits from uncertainty and crises (political, financial, economic).
Risks: - Political - macro level (daily use ban or "convertibility ban" through exchanges would refrain mainstream adoption) - Political - micro level (if miners and developers fail to reach the necessary consensus, a fork could refrain mainstream adoption or be seen as an opportunity, but the uncertainty could impact the price negatively) - Hacking (every hack sparks a sell-off and highlights Bitcoin's risks, especially if it's an exchange allowing margin trading) - 51% attack and mining centralization (learncryptography.com/cryptocurrency/51-attack)
The risks are relatively hard to assess and predict. Therefore, they can happen, surprise and have a strong downward impact on the price in a very short period of time.