4xForecaster
Short

Predictive/Forecasting Model Eyes 405/575; So Do Market-Geos.

BTCCHINA:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING SYSTEM:

1 - 575.65 - 27 FEB 2015

and

2 - 405.95 - 27 FEB 2015


SIMPLE MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Large simple symmetrical a-b = c-d patterns aim for similar vicinity.

1 - The largest in light blue projects into the Model's range of 575.65 to 405.95

2 - The smallest in light purple projects slight above the Model's first target of 575.95

Averaged projection of the blue terminal and purple terminal levels is (623.69 + 501.17)/2 = 562.43, or slightly right at the Model's first target of 575.95


OCCULT MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Momental lines (representing dominant rated of change in price throughout any timeframe, running independent from channel lines) can be seen in the chart as running from bottom left to upper right. This is to contrast with a long-term bearish channel which is running from top-left to bottom-right.

These momental lines are likely to remain in force in this case, as in any other cases, imposing their omni-present forces on price, ... in this particular case acting as an overhead resistance.


OVERALL:

Price action is likely to seek a denouement in the shaded area. The arrow shows the probable direction of price. Invalidation of this would need to meet two important tests:

1 - Transgression of the momental line

and

2 - Committed accession above the 1944 level, whereby price would Break-Across + Close-Across ("BACA").


Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

Linked-In:
David Alcindor
-----


.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
27 FEB 2015 - Update:

Original image:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Hi David, how does this compare to your other analysis using bitfinex/stamp? These markets tend to move together, so any assumptions that show btcchina should coincide with analysis at other exchanges.

I am wondering if this means you are adjusting your other models as well, or do you chart the exchanges separately despite the underlying asset being traded globally?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO venomspike
2 years ago
Hello @venomspike:

The technical commentaries I offered in both the composite and BitFinex remains bearish, and in line with this BTCCNY chart - The comments made over the past weeks were:

snapshot


24 JAN 2015 - BTCUSD (single Exchange) -
A Quick Technical Lesson | $BTC #forex #elliottwave #bitcoin


Comments throughout this chart continually conclude that the 5-prime line is the geometric intent of price; I speak of some circumstance whereby price could try to rise, but the intent remains set on a net bearish outcome (see comment in the thread where I say "there is me, and then there is the model"


Also, in the composite chart, I refer to "Negative Divergence points to bears' resilience", as well as a statement in which I mention that the 5-prime position is likely to be visited:

$BTCUSD: 3-in-One | $BTC #BTCe #Bitfinex #Bitstamp #bitcoin



OVERALL, the narrative has not changed. The bearish outlook predominates in the single exchange, as well as the composite exchange and the large BTCCNY exchange. In the single exchange (Bitstamp), I mentioned that there are graphic (structural) obstacles to bears, but that a significant event will have to overcome it, as the trend remains bearish and the 5-prime position remains pending.

I hope this points out to a consistent narrative, which remains bearish, not by opinion, but by discreet technical details I have consistently added in the chart, such as the negative divergence (strongest element), as well as the pending 5-prime.

On the last "fake" rally, I posted an analysis questioning it by raising the question "how real is it?" and demonstrating by a large pink arrow how it would be stomped at a discreet overhead resistance. It has since hit its head on the mark and reversed.

Of late, I Googled "largest BTC market", and the BTCCNY came up as dawrfing all other exchanges, and even dwarfing the largest Forex market ($EURUSD) - So, I would consider that chart a proxy of most other markets, and let it express for its little cousins, the directional intent of the crypto-currency, as I would expect that it might point the way as clearly as any other composite exchange put together.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
NOTE: Google Query => "largest bitcoin exchange" => http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/
Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Just so you know, CNY exchanges do the most volume because they have very low or no fees. OKCoin is the dominant chinese exchange but BTC China can appear to have more volume due to volume producing bots on that exchange.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Jameve
2 years ago
Thank you @Jameve - Good to know!

David
Reply
27 FEB 2015 - Tech-Note:

Here is a chart with most relevant momental lines - I will remove most of them so as to keep it clean:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY rallies towards momental line underbelly; Look for RSI correlate:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
ADDENDUM - Correction:

Somehow, the chart I posted was not quite up-to-date ... Here is the refreshed version:

snapshot



Thank you @jameve for noticing.


David
+3 Reply
cezarone 4xForecaster
2 years ago
hmm i dont think this is log scale
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO cezarone
2 years ago
Hello, @cezarone - Never made any difference in my trading. In fact, I have had multiple academic-level explanations given about log scale or not, and it simply never made any difference, whether at the time I was a novice, or now in my professional years. At the end, it's a personal choice based on habit or conviction, but these are internal conditions. The market prints the exam same 1,200 value then a 1,300 value regardless of whether we decide to modify the way price stretches across the visual field of price - David
+1 Reply
03 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY hit overhead resistance as forecast; High-prob. reversal:

snapshot


@tradingview #bitcoin #litecoin $BTC
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
04 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY remain subdued by occult momental line; RSI continues its bearish tempo:

snapshot


@tradingview #bitcoin $BTC $CNY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
manipuflated 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Because it stopped short of 1800 instead of going to 1944, does that mean the lower targets of 575 to 405 will raise a bit?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manipuflated
2 years ago
Hello @manipuflated - I am not sure I understand how the two might be correlated. 1944 is a static historical structure level - Sort of a visual "line in the sand" across which a price behavior has led to significant moves. In contrast, the lower targets are defined by the model. If there is a relation to look for within the price field it would possibly be a Fibonacci one, but the model uses a non-price variable. A lot of the close correlation that may occur with the model and Fib-based targeting would occur at standard 1.272, 1.414 and 1.618 Fib extensions, but the Fibs are too inaccurate compared to what the model uses to define a specific target level, in addition to defining a direction, strength, and extent of price projection - Not sure I am fully answering your question, but by contrasting the model from the standard Fib use, may be I can help fill a few gap (?).

David
+3 Reply
manipuflated 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,
I guess I had a false assumption in my head...if the sell target was 200 under, I assumed the re-entry target could possibly be 200 higher. But, yeah, I guess the trend lines never change so my assumption about the lower target doesn't make sense and the two are independent. I suppose 1944 could still be hit as well...
I'll go back in the corner with my dunce hat and observe. :-D
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manipuflated
2 years ago
Hello @manipuflated - There is never a dull moment with the market, and it offers always that opportunity to admit that we learn another lesson every day.

There is no corner to return to, but to the reading shelves, the drawing table and to bed, a triangular pathway I have carved deep grooves over the years, every time feeling more and more pleased from the pain of learning and the idea that there is never a wrong position when you gets elevated by another lesson from the market.

Truth is, one cannot live long enough to make all the necessary mistakes to become a master of anything, but the fastest way is to remain humble and get out of a wrong position and let the market be right.

The assumption in trading is too look at all the reasons you could be wrong, and playing around the ones that would increase the chance to lose the least. Everything else being a gain, then there is only losses to control.

At any moment, this crypto can live up to its name and go cryptic on anyone.


David
+2 Reply
08 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY: ML resistance remains main hurdle to bulls as forecast; Bears dominate:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
10 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY drills through ML enamel layers, unsuccessfully, as per (persistently) bearish forecast:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+6 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

How is this bearish outlook and forecast of eyeing 405/575 by your model related to the bullish outlook from the 5-prime (5') of the WW pattern in this chart?

In this synthetic view of the BTC CHina chart, the geometry is quite obvious that a rallying has taken place from the 5-prime (5') position (900 CNY in the chart).

As a general rule, and as defined by you in a separate post, the MOST COMMON manifestation of the WW pattern is via a 5-prime completion.

A Quick Technical Lesson | $BTC #forex #elliottwave #bitcoin


You defined the "five prime", written as 5', as follows:

1 - Draw the 2-4 Line and the 1-3 Line.
2 - Copy the 2-4 Line, and place its beginning right at Point-3.
3 - This new 2-4 Line projection is now called the Target Line, or Profit Line, and will define Point 5' upon price validation of this line.

If the WW pattern is completed via a 5-prime completion the 1-4 Line is supposed to be the Take-Profit, or "TP" line.
You recommended taking full or partial profit IF and ONCE price reverses to the former level of Point-4, that is 2955 CNY in this BTCChina chart.
Reversal from Point-5' offers a high probability of reversal and validation of hitting price level of Point-4 .

So, which of the two scenarios is most probable at this point in time in the chart?

1) The bearish outlook and forecast of eyeing 405/575 by your model?
2) Or, the bullish outlook from the 5-prime (5') completion of the WW pattern, with a take profit level of 2955 CNY?

Kind regards.
+1 Reply
devlspawn eYou
2 years ago
An interesting question I'm curious to see David's response. I assumed in the 3 in 1 composite chart he made that 5' never completed, but it clearly does in this BTCChina chart.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
2 years ago
Hello @eYou - I would look at two things: Specificity and sensitivity - The sensitivity of an analysis signals for a desired event (too sensitive a signal will cause a lot of false positive signals - for example, too sensitive a trap would close before the rabbit steps into it), whereas the specificity of an analysis represents what is actually sought (a low specificity would trigger a late signal - A trap for a rabbit that only catches rabbits and lets out lighter or larger paws) - What you are seeking is a high enough a sensitivity to alert you of the possibility of a condition met, as well as high-enough a specificity signaling that what you are seeking is truly happening.

Putting these concepts in the analysis, here is what a composite chart vs. a single chart can produce in terms of sensitivity vs. specificity:

1 - The very nature of a BTCUSD composite chart is that it will allow a lot of slippage, for instance, the an unanswered 5-prime level: Is it because the differences among the exchanges (BTCe, BitStamp, ... etc) interfere against one another that price ended up not lining up at the 5-prime position, or is it because it really reveals that as a consensus, these markets are not ready to rally as of yet?

So, as a composite, many voices are speaking at the same time, and the signal is likely to be specific as to what it means by representing a large group of constituents, but it is likely to lack the sensitivity.

2 - In contrast, the BTCCNY has proven to be the most sensitive to the lines defined in the analysis, as well as to its response to the background geometries. Now, note also that BTCCNY is the largest market there is, but is speaks with one single voice (in contrast to the composite chart, which is made iup of several exchanges) - This makes it the most sensitive market there is, as it does not submit its data against that of other exchanges, as in the composite.

For this reason, I have laid the analysis against it, and so far the lines have held quite consistently. This particular chart remains bearish based on the conditions defined in the analysis - For instance, it remains subdued to the momental line, and the 1944 level, two levels that would need to be broken to call it a valid bullish signal.

Overall, the composite chart has moved in a way that remains open to further downside, if 5-prime had to be hit (which remains unanswered in the composite chart). However, this is not an absolute rule, but keep in mind that the composite chart absorbs a lot more slippage, causing its price action to define a broader market consensus (more specific), yet lacking the precision of a single exchange (less sensitive).

In contrast, the single BTCCNY market represents a more sensitive activity of the crypto-currency, but lacks the ability to speak for all other exchanges (low specificity).


What I would concentrate on at this point is not sensitivity, which is what most traders grant too much importance (i.e.: did it trigger a technical alarm, such as validating a line, crossing a level), but rather concentrate on the specificity of a price action (i.e.: Is the price action representing a true and deliberate intention to move in the sought-after direction).

Looking at both charts, I have attempted to answer to both sensitivity and specificity concerns.


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you David for clarifying these two concepts: specificity and sensitivity. These concepts add to my overall analysis. It's been a pleasure reading your detailed analysis. Thank you for the time and effort that you put into these detailed analyses. Have a great weekend!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
2 years ago
Hello @eYou - Thank you for your kind feedback. Have a great and safe weekend as well - David
Reply
14 MAR 2015 - Asking the experts out there ...

Hello crypto'ers,

A quick question - I would like to get a feel on what exchange is the most looked after, so that I can best respond to the general needs out there. I posed that question over a year ago, and this opened the flood gate to a diverse opinions.

Let me know which Exchange (BTCe, Bitstamp, ... etc) or pair (BTC vs. USD, or BTC vs. CNY) you are most interested in.

Thank you for taking the time to answer.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
venomspike PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
You'll get different answers because it is constantly changing as well. Bitstamp fell out of the spotlight, and new comers like coinbase exchange are starting to impact BTC/USD markets.

At the moment, CNY seems to run the show, particularly OKC/BTCChina. BTC/USD is dominated by Finex at the moment, but that may not be the case in the next 6 months.

Hope that helps!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO venomspike
2 years ago
Hi, @venomspike - Thank you for this clarification ... And, that's the reason why I am asking, as these crypto-currencies are constantly shifting. I am aiming for both a reliable exchange/pair to analyze, as well as one that remains relevant to most traders.

Again your input is greatly appreciated.

David
Reply
Jameve 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Bitfinex for BTCUSD, it definitely does the most volume for a USD exchange.

OKCoin for BTCCNY, they have an international version of their site and have weekly, biweekly, and quarterly futures.
+1 Reply
Jameve Jameve
2 years ago
i am personally most interested in bitfinex of course because I trade there :x
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Jameve
2 years ago
... duly noted - David
+1 Reply
devlspawn 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Personally I am also most interested in Bitfinex as that is where I trade and base my own charts.

Also pointing out that although BTC china might do the most volume, tradingview itself has a much higher proportion USD using audience. Though there are exceptions most of those people are trading on BTC:USD pairs.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Jameve
2 years ago
Great, thank you @Jameve - This helps clarify things a lot. Much appreciated - David
+1 Reply
manipuflated 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I've been watching BTCChina since it sounded like they have the most overall volume. There were reports the other day (confirmed?) that say about 80% of the current supply is transacting in yuan. I think BTCChina makes sense to follow going forward, for now.

But I wouldn't mind an estimated USD value in parenthesis next to the yuan value. :-D

Bitfinex is no slouch either though as they tend to have larger whale spikes it seems. It's your call David. Thank you for doing what you do. :)
+1 Reply
Jameve manipuflated
2 years ago
BTC China has not been a dominant exchange since late 2013/early 2014. Most of their volume is 'manufactured' (not real) by bots. It is possible to do this on OKCoin too but it is advised against and you could even be told to stop by the exchange itself (I heard it from an informal interview with an OKCoin employee).
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Jameve
2 years ago
I would still be interested in looking at movements, regardless of the mechanism of movement behind price action (although it should be relevant to the bitcoin trader, for my part, it would fall completely in line with the view I hold of bitcoin as well as Forex markets).

So, any action will still reveal some information about directional intent and extent, using the predictive/forecasting model.

David
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manipuflated
2 years ago
Hello @manipuflated - Yes, the other day, I posted a link that supported that percentage data.

Other source of information worth noting (Source: Googling "Largest bitcoin exchange"):

1 - Old article on MtGox ... Just for the nostaligic out there:
"The Rise and Fall of the World’s Largest Bitcoin Exchange"
http://www.wired.com/2013/11/mtgox/

2 - "None of the 5 biggest Bitcoin exchanges are in the United States"
http://upstart.bizjournals.com/money/loot/2014/02/12/5-biggest-bitcoin-exchanges.html

3 - This is the one I posted, I believe:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/

So, #3 above appears the be the most relevant info so far.


David
+1 Reply
spot on with the rising trendline, we're right up in the armpit ;-)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO ronfkingswanson
2 years ago
Hello @ronfkingsawnson - Yes. About to get hairy for bullies.

David
Reply
How's this for some negative divergence?
Full RSI cycle (hi-lo-hi) but lower price = more bear to come
+1 Reply
15 MAR 2015 - Update:

I hope someone is picking up on this potential WW:


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
venomspike PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi Davic, what is defined at the potential WW? Are you suggesting this is overextended or about to breakout?
+2 Reply
venomspike PRO venomspike
2 years ago
David*
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO venomspike
2 years ago
Hello @venomspike - See explanation below.

Thank you.


David
Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Could you elaborate a little please? I didn't know WW patterns so I looked them up just now and I am a little confused. I see that there are bullish WWs and bearish WWs, but I am not seeing either here from the definitions of WW patterns that I have found.

The best that I can tell is that it is a bullish WW with 1 being your blue b, 2 being your blue c, 3 being your red b, 4 being your red c, and 5 being the low that is close to your red d. This would put us in a 6th leg right now that should be taking us up from here. Although this is what it seems from the pattern I read of, this is not what I believe to be what is happening here.

Any clarification would be amazing. Thanks David.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Macainian
2 years ago
Hello @Macainian - Just posted the entire pattern completion ... See below.

"Potential WW" occurred as price completed at Point-5 in the pattern and could "technically" not get any higher - David
+1 Reply
18 MAR 2015 - Update:

From twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY falls thru momental line support as forecast; Bearish targets intact:

snapshot


@tradingview #bitcoin $BTC #btcchina
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
18 MAR 2015 - Addendum: WW completion


From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY completes its entire Wolfe Waves ("WW") geometry at pattern's1-4 TP Line:

snapshot


@tradingview #bitcoin $BTC $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
18 MAR 2015 - Update:

from Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY continues to fall at forecast geometric locus relative to momental lines:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC $CNY #bitcoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
minbari PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Nailed it yet again
+3 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY - Fell as forecast; Bears remain ready for further downside:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC $CNY #bitcoin #btcchina
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
Zoltan 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Do you have any idea where will be the bottom for btc? thx )))
Reply
22 MAR 2015 - Update:

Looking at a finer tune timeframe (here, M15), I just posted this $BTCCNY chart on the "Advanced Market Geo" page under today's date (Link:
Advanced Financial Market Geos - Educational Ideas & Discussions
) - Here is what the page looks like:


snapshot



I posted a short explanation there about by preference between the two geometries.

Stay tuned,

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
$BTCUSD - Using relevant Fibonacci extensions.

As discussed, earlier today, relevant Fibonacci extensions are;

1.131

1.272

1.414

1.618


Note that in the most counter-aggressive markets, 1.414 is the most probable level of price reversal. Here is how it stands in this particular chart:


snapshot



Source: "Advanced Market Geo" -
Advanced Financial Market Geos - Educational Ideas & Discussions



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
23 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY - M15 rolls off of its 1.414 #fibonacci: Discussed in "Adv. Market Geo" thread:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
24 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY carves out a lower-low, as forecast; Bearish targets remain in force:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Addendum - Here is the M15 chart with the reversal occurring right at the 1.414-Fibonacci level, as discussed before:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David,

A short question about your targets in this forecast and what I learned from you from your other posts.

The red target in your model indicates that the probability of getting hit is LOW, but if price finally gets to it, the probability of reversal is HIGH?

And the purple target in this forecast is a "Worst-Case Scenario", an extreme target?

Is that correct?

Kind regards.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO eYou
2 years ago
Hello @eYou - This is correct.

In general, the RED will represent a TG-Hi or TG-Lo, whereas the PURPLE will represent its extremes at TG-Hix or TG-Lox.

Whenever there is a BLUE-colored target, the Predictive/Forecasting Model is looking at FOUR-times a HIGHER timeframe that may be interfering with the NOMINAL targets. This would occur if for instance the Model gives a NOMINAL target at the M15 level, but price action is swift and moves on through the numerical targets (TG-1, TG-2, ..., TG-n), then onto TG-Hi/Lo and transgresses the extremes TG-Hix/Lox with no (nodal/nodular) geometries on its way through it all.

This will trigger a signal to look at a higher timeframe, which is likely to interfer with this lower level. Typically, a M15 interference will prompt the Model to look at M15 x 4 = H1 level, whereas at a H1, then a H1 x 4 = H4 level should be consulted, whereas at the H4 level, I simply move on up to the DAILY, whereas at the DAILY, I simply look at a quasi 4-day trading week, thus look simply at the WEEKLY level ... and WEEKLY x 4 = MONTHLY.


The reason why interference is thought to occur (at least in the FOREX market, but I also believe that other largely traded markets as well) is because institutional and retail markets are separate, distinct yet paralleled markets, wherein the retail market will move according to the interbank (i.e.: institutional market), just like the last wagon of a long train will catch up ever so incrementally to the pulling and tugging and narrow differential back-and-forth (i.e.: spread) motions that occur between all wagons as the locomotive (institutional force) moves, decelerate, accelerate or stand still.

So, when a TG-Hix or TG-Lox fails to push price into a reversal move - and not just a retracement (i.e.: a turn-around greater than 0.618 will constitute a successfull reversal, and anything less would constitute a retracement, as seen in numerical targets instead), then interference is occurring.

Hope this smoothes over a bit more around the edges of this mad Model.


David
Reply
eYou 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Thank you, David! Appreciate your time and help.
+1 Reply
WenpingGuo 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Dear David: very educative and insightful to me; really appreciate your time and efforts!
+1 Reply
Macainian
2 years ago
snapshot


Hey David, I was wondering if you could take a look at this. I am pretty new to WW patterns and this looks right to me, but I was hoping to get your input. Please note that in this chart, I am just making an estimated guess on 5. Also note that 6 just represents the target; I am well aware that there are only 5 in WW patterns.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Macainian
2 years ago
Hello @Macainian - The pattern requires that both 1-3 and 2-4 Lines:

1 - Move in the same direction (your 1-3 Line is going down, while your 2-4 Line is going up)

and

2 - Be convergent to one another (which is correct in yours).

Makes sense?


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Ah I see, thanks for the clarification. I really appreciate it.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Macainian
2 years ago
Hello @Macainian - I am glad you are spotting the difference. This will eliminate a whole lot of other geometries with less probabilities out of your mind's eyes - David
Reply
04 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
---------
$BTCCNY adhered closely to Wolfe Waves completion at 1-4 Line; Expecting again:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC $CNY #bitcoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
04 APR 2015 - Addendum:

I just added some extra "Tech-Note' information about the background patterns, as well as a reminder of the rule to successfuly trade these patterns - See link here in the "Market Geos" Lesson thread:

- https://www.tradingview.com/v/W4GwjLu0/#tc160955


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
manipuflated 4xForecaster
2 years ago
It looks like line 4 is continuing.
Reply
06 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY - Ectopic 5-prime position calls for more proximal target in 1490/1485 range:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hey David. After listening to your response about why my last chart attempt was wrong, I produced this one:
snapshot


Same as last time. 5 is a projection and 6 just represents a guess on where it is going which is related to the 1-4 line. The main point of my chart upload was to see what you think about how I set it up and see if you think it's valid. Secondarily, I wanted to blend multiple ideas that I have seen together, where the 5 (or 5' or 5'' or whatever) on this goes down to your predicted level of 1485-1490 and then the 6 (or 1-4 line) reaches up to a level of 290ish which a lot of other users have suggested before the eventual drop to much lower levels.

What do you think about:
a) The validity of my WW thus far.
b) The possibility that my 5/5'/5'' is related to your 1485-1490 target.
c) In general, what you think of a 290ish target. Possible?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Macainian
2 years ago
Hello @Macainian - I will cut/paste your question and chart and post them on the thread where we address this particular geometry in more developed terms. I'll keep this $BTCCNY thread as a frame-by-frame journal - Here is the URL that will link you specifically to today's entry for this BTCCNY:

- https://www.tradingview.com/v/W4GwjLu0/#tc161584


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Macainian 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Ok thanks.
+1 Reply
08 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCCNY rolled as forecast; Expecting tip-toeing onto next forecast range:

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@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
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David Alcindor
+4 Reply
devlspawn 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Higher timeframe still looking at lower targets? (575, 405)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO devlspawn
2 years ago
@devlspawn - So far, there is no other indication that suggests otherwise - David
+1 Reply
08 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCCNY hit its targeted 1490/1485, tip-toeing as forecast; Bears remain in favor:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin $CNY
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David Alcindor
+4 Reply
13 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn/Facebook:
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$BTCCNY breached thru support; Opens floor to 1089.93; Outlook still bearish:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
13 APR 2015 - Update: ... Looking at the larger picture:


From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCCNY still carving lower-lows; Predictive/Forecasting Model still eyeing 575.65:

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@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin
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David Alcindor
+4 Reply
21 APR 2015 - Update:

Hello TV'ers,

At the request of several traders, you may have noted that as of today (21 APR 2015), I have started to assign a thread for each Forex pair, so that it facilitates following the analyses. Therefore, from here on, I will make sure to develop a chart for each of the Forex pair, although I will also start posting individual index, stock, and commodities.

If there is a particular chart you'd like to share, please, do not just post the link. Simply use the icon in the right upper corner of the writing window, and cut/paste its URL. If there is a chart you'd like to bring up from another thread, simply right click on it, chose "Copy Link Location", then within that icon in the writing window, paste it, then click "Insert" ... It will show up as the URL address (i.e.: https://www.tradingview.com/xyz123 ... ) framed by  within your text, but it'll show up as an image once "Post Comment" is clicked. If only the URL is posted without a visible chart, I am not likely to open it, nor would others, since we all go through so many of these charts in any given day. Make it easy for the sake of those who would enjoy your posting, comments and astute charting.

One last thing: If at all possible, try to make your chart as simply looking as possible. There is no need to mention your directional opinion, your feelings about a direction, or what you believe price should do, especially when supported by a myriads of complex and colorful indicators. Charting should never have to reveal the tools you used to arrive at an analysis. It should simply point to the bare essentials, stating a cause/effect, a before/after, or a single, simple point of discussion. I strive to deliver my charts to you in as simple a presentation as possible. The complexity of the predictive model, the technical tools, and other abstract elements are usually removed out of sight, not so much to keep it clean, but to have less "stuff" between you and me, so as to appear that I am here with you, and intentionally sharing something in the clearest and closest fashion as can be delivered.

My goal is nothing short than to introduce you to a different approach, look and activity surrounding charting, technical analysis and predictive analysis. But I want it to be of benefits to the largest number of other readers, students of the market as we all are, daily and incessantly.

I very much appreciate your following thus far, and look forward to more challenging queries.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
04 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$BTCCNY at a technical landmark; Bears still in control; Targets in force:

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$BTC #bitcoin #bitstamp #btce #bitfinex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
2 years ago
what does this mean in relation to your $260 prediction David? do you feel the recent rally has weakened enough to invalidate it?

seems we are visiting an interesting intersection at the moment..
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO G_Man
2 years ago
@Gary_The_Astronaut,

One of the rule I have established relates to the breaking of the Elliott Wave Point-2 projection, which in the most recently posted chart represents the overhead trend line resistance.

A break of that resistance heralds the coming of the Elliott Wave's 4th wave.

So, a break of the current resistance would simply bring price to a higher structure ($260.00 is the implied target here), whereas an Ellliott Wave 5th wave would complete the entire EW impulse at the lower targets, as defined.

David
+1 Reply
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