4xForecaster
Short

Predictive/Forecasting Model Eyes 405/575; So Do Market-Geos.

BTCCHINA:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING SYSTEM:

1 - 575.65 - 27 FEB 2015

and

2 - 405.95 - 27 FEB 2015


SIMPLE MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Large simple symmetrical a-b = c-d patterns aim for similar vicinity.

1 - The largest in light blue projects into the Model's range of 575.65 to 405.95

2 - The smallest in light purple projects slight above the Model's first target of 575.95

Averaged projection of the blue terminal and purple terminal levels is (623.69 + 501.17)/2 = 562.43, or slightly right at the Model's first target of 575.95


OCCULT MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Momental lines (representing dominant rated of change in price throughout any timeframe, running independent from channel lines) can be seen in the chart as running from bottom left to upper right. This is to contrast with a long-term bearish channel which is running from top-left to bottom-right.

These momental lines are likely to remain in force in this case, as in any other cases, imposing their omni-present forces on price, ... in this particular case acting as an overhead resistance.


OVERALL:

Price action is likely to seek a denouement in the shaded area. The arrow shows the probable direction of price. Invalidation of this would need to meet two important tests:

1 - Transgression of the momental line

and

2 - Committed accession above the 1944 level, whereby price would Break-Across + Close-Across ("BACA").


Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
@4xForecaster

Linked-In:
David Alcindor
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.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
04 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY at a technical landmark; Bears still in control; Targets in force:

snapshot


$BTC #bitcoin #bitstamp #btce #bitfinex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
G_Man 4xForecaster
what does this mean in relation to your $260 prediction David? do you feel the recent rally has weakened enough to invalidate it?

seems we are visiting an interesting intersection at the moment..
+1 Reply
@Gary_The_Astronaut,

One of the rule I have established relates to the breaking of the Elliott Wave Point-2 projection, which in the most recently posted chart represents the overhead trend line resistance.

A break of that resistance heralds the coming of the Elliott Wave's 4th wave.

So, a break of the current resistance would simply bring price to a higher structure ($260.00 is the implied target here), whereas an Ellliott Wave 5th wave would complete the entire EW impulse at the lower targets, as defined.

David
+1 Reply
21 APR 2015 - Update:

Hello TV'ers,

At the request of several traders, you may have noted that as of today (21 APR 2015), I have started to assign a thread for each Forex pair, so that it facilitates following the analyses. Therefore, from here on, I will make sure to develop a chart for each of the Forex pair, although I will also start posting individual index, stock, and commodities.

If there is a particular chart you'd like to share, please, do not just post the link. Simply use the icon in the right upper corner of the writing window, and cut/paste its URL. If there is a chart you'd like to bring up from another thread, simply right click on it, chose "Copy Link Location", then within that icon in the writing window, paste it, then click "Insert" ... It will show up as the URL address (i.e.: https://www.tradingview.com/xyz123 ... ) framed by  within your text, but it'll show up as an image once "Post Comment" is clicked. If only the URL is posted without a visible chart, I am not likely to open it, nor would others, since we all go through so many of these charts in any given day. Make it easy for the sake of those who would enjoy your posting, comments and astute charting.

One last thing: If at all possible, try to make your chart as simply looking as possible. There is no need to mention your directional opinion, your feelings about a direction, or what you believe price should do, especially when supported by a myriads of complex and colorful indicators. Charting should never have to reveal the tools you used to arrive at an analysis. It should simply point to the bare essentials, stating a cause/effect, a before/after, or a single, simple point of discussion. I strive to deliver my charts to you in as simple a presentation as possible. The complexity of the predictive model, the technical tools, and other abstract elements are usually removed out of sight, not so much to keep it clean, but to have less "stuff" between you and me, so as to appear that I am here with you, and intentionally sharing something in the clearest and closest fashion as can be delivered.

My goal is nothing short than to introduce you to a different approach, look and activity surrounding charting, technical analysis and predictive analysis. But I want it to be of benefits to the largest number of other readers, students of the market as we all are, daily and incessantly.

I very much appreciate your following thus far, and look forward to more challenging queries.

Best,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
13 APR 2015 - Update: ... Looking at the larger picture:


From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY still carving lower-lows; Predictive/Forecasting Model still eyeing 575.65:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
13 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn/Facebook:
----------
$BTCCNY breached thru support; Opens floor to 1089.93; Outlook still bearish:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
08 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$BTCCNY hit its targeted 1490/1485, tip-toeing as forecast; Bears remain in favor:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin $CNY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
08 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------
$BTCCNY rolled as forecast; Expecting tip-toeing onto next forecast range:

snapshot


@tradingview $BTC #bitcoin #litecoin
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
devlspawn 4xForecaster
Higher timeframe still looking at lower targets? (575, 405)
+1 Reply
@devlspawn - So far, there is no other indication that suggests otherwise - David
+1 Reply
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