I haven't been publishing lately because this area has been incredibly difficult to navigate with short sqeezes, fakeouts and everything else that makes Bitcoin Bitcoin
. Therefore, I've had a look at some of the longer timeframes and the story is interesting. As you can see here, there is some serious convergence of indicators. We've been hovering around this level for a long time...too long. Volatility
is getting low, but not explosion-just-around-the-corner low. Break ups and break downs have been suppressed in favour of remaining at this level. I've had my fingers burned (and bandaged) several times, trying to pre-emt the big move. All I can say is, you'll know it when you see it.
Looking at things like the daily and the monthly, my bias is definitely to the downside. Other strings to the bear bow: a large upside move would be fighting the tape; we're hanging around above this support for a long time having bounced off it - why haven't we bounced away from it?
There are arguments for the bullish
outcome, however. The support at this level is very strong. There have been several attempts to breakdown from here. You get the idea.
Therefore, my advice would be to wait for confirmation of this big move and play it. As I said, I'm biased to the downside but can't be certain and am awaiting confirmation myself. Happy New Year and a profitable 2015 when it comes.