Didn't like what I saw when I loaded up the yearly SCMR dynamic trend level on OKCoin today. 1974 can now be considered to be walled to f*&K
Assuming we can't break the yearly SCMR dynamic trend level at 1974 on a bounce from here, the next plausible target for a 'normal' Bitcoin dump (of minimum of 58%) would be 1224 ish. This also happens to be the 2.0 fib extension level and translates to $196 ish dollars. I'm looking for a short entry
Another thing I looked at, slightly different take, is percentage drawdowns.
"how does this decline compare to others in 2014?
This is rolling 1 month returns. You can see that this rolling 30 day return is -24.37% (at the time of original post) and that the "worst" returns were -35% and -42%, respectively (the blue arrows I drew).
So if we extrapolate this out, and suppose that within 10 days we can achieve the worst return of -42%, that would target 207, which (entirely coincidentally) is the first weekly target on the weekly chart."
In any case, can guesstimate that if this decline is as bad as others, -35--42, measuring solely month to month, then that would put a target in (guesstimating again) 240-210 range. This is close to your 196 target.
Also, if we just look at daily, next level is 207 (coincidence)
and weekly, next level is 136 (seems very far off).
SunnyBTC
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Thanks for the feedback man. I love that 207 area, thanks for the heads up... I'm definitely going for the fill above 200. 240 has some trendline support on stamp too
SunnyBTC
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133 is what Benjamin (bear whale) said on teamspeak was his 'headshot' target if we can break 200 btw :D
Great work again Sunny!