chessnut
Long

BTCCNY EW Analysis - triple zig-zag could end the down trend.

OKCOIN:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
519 6 8
This is a nice count for bitcoin that has recently come to light considering two factors, the local formation of a triangle and the breakup of the grand log down trend. The local formation of the triangle is important to note because it is the only way imaginable that bitcoin could bottom without forming new lows as triangles may be the terminal wave of a triple combination.This is particularly attractive because of the perfect alternation within the count. we have a flat, a zigzag and then a triangle.
GOOD JOB
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RyNinDaCleM
a year ago
So what was that bottom in your opinion?

I have that count as well. I am not completely convinced that the TL break is so significant that it signals the end of the bear market. Path of least resistance is definitely up, but how far? We also broke what was similarly (at the time) believed to be a strong TL in May-June 2014. That turned out to be just a counter trend rally to the larger bear trend. I can easily see a rally coming from this break, but until there is more data, I am not yet ready to say "This is it!" The over-all time is too short for a historical 2 but it is just about right for a smaller 4 of (3). The latter is the only scenario that I can say expect new ATH's before lower lows than we have already seen. Otherwise, we are in a larger B or worse, this is just another false break for a wave-2/B on our way to LL's sooner than later. Time will tell.

This is the complete history and time overlayed. So far, the time is perfect for a wave-A to the 152 low, and we are well on our way toward the B.
snapshot
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chessnut RyNinDaCleM
a year ago
Thing is, if the count is triple zz then thats a complete form. idk if that meets the criteria of wave A of a flat. Not that I dont see it could be a flat, but then we need a deeep retrace to 700 anyway. worth kicking a fuss about. If I see a 1-2 impulse here like I described in the tagged chart then I would say that the evidence in compiling. The divergence in counts would be in wave 2, where larger wave (B) would probably produce a large flat, this being c of A (assuming we have bottomed in the current cycle), and a new bullish cycle would produce a 1-2-3-4-5 in contrast.
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RyNinDaCleM chessnut
a year ago
There is definitely some potential upside in this. Definitely worth the fuss...
That triple can make a wave A. Similarly to how a triangle is considered a "3" in a flat, a triple is made up entirely of 3's so it would also be allowed as either a zigzag A or a flat A. In my linked chart above, I have (b) of B as complete and we are in the i of 3 (like you have outlined in your chart) of C. Not sure that $700 is required, but it is a possibility. This is that larger B. http://i.imgur.com/FjeUXU5.png. It all fits until it's invalid :P so as I said before, time will tell.
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chessnut RyNinDaCleM
a year ago
+1 athough I thought that wave A of a zigzag had to be an impulse, so thats why I think this really has to be a flat in that case. The guideline would be a 62% retrace at the least.
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chessnut chessnut
a year ago
oh woops misread you, +1
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