Bitcoin has been pretty exciting this year with massive drops and a lot of trading opportunities surrounding coinbase exchange, GBTC, And a lot of other good technical patterns. A lot of theese patterns have been on the 2h and 4h charts, but once in a while it is good to look at the bigger picture.
The yellow lines show resistance and support levels. I only chose levels that have been repeatdely tested, and in most case both when the price was trying to go down or when it was trying to go up.The redline shows a massive wedge and triangle, with the lower redline being MASSIVE suport, which you can see as being the point where the initial run up in 2013 led to a huge bubble.
The overall system is still very bearish, with the price below 200dma, and the 200dma trending down.
The medium term looks better though, as this wedge/triangle is reaching an apex, and bitcoin has been on a 210-300 range fro around 4-5 months.
Fundamentals still look really ugly for bitcoin. Even though a wave of VC investments and other things such as GBTC offering and the like come out, most people arguably still relate to bitcoin as some drug/underground/techie thing.
Stock markets around the world appear inflated. and the dollar might be mean reverting, although i do not expect that too late for too long. Greece debt and other junk debt, could be of interest for bitcoin, but atm still doesn't matter.
Overall I am bullish because of the technical and pattern here, as well as the tape behavior changing, now is a good time to go long if you've been on the sidelines, with a stop loss art around 1390, With 1330 being massive support. if bitcoin mean reverts to any extent, I expect at least one of these support levels to break, meaning at the very least we go over 300, and with some juice maybe reach the next resistance level at 2800, but that would most like be pushing it
In terms of news The only start up I am interested in sidechains/blockstream realted startups, With potentially some other ones working on user interface. GBTC news could also pop up the price
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The battle between bulls and bears was very difficult to analyze here. Like you said "as well as the tape behavior changing", I also noticed that the patterns in the chart became different than usual. Basically we are at the potential bottom of the bottom of 2015, if !!! the breakout after the bullish Circle/Goldman news from Thursday doesn't get completely sold off like the PayPal news or the Coinbase Lunar news in the past.
I was able to come up with these five bullish charts in the last week (sorted from newest to oldest):
I was able to come up with these five bullish charts in the last week (sorted from newest to oldest):