IvanLabrie
Long

BTCCNY: Analysis update - Uptrend's solid, need further proof

BTCCHINA:BTCCNY   Bitcoin / Chinese Yuan
I'm currently holding 15% of my capital in non-leveraged long positions in BTC after closing my leveraged longs for a nice 2.5:1 profit, or 10.375:1 if you factor in the floating drawdown while holding it.
I reccomend holding if you're long, you can book some leveraged positions, but don't sell BTC you own, unless it exceeds 80% of your Bitcoin trading capital. Between 15% to 80% of it, exposes you enough to profit from the rally, without having too much risk.

We have a great rally here, we broke the Brexit resistance, we broke above the previous downtrend mode, the level where bears and bulls battled for an extended period of distribution, where eventually the bears won, pushing prices down sharply. The drop, on the back of fundamentals, didn't cause major technical damage, so it was clear the trend is largely still up. We did buy BTC a few times so far, but mostly swing trades. We can now hold for longer term, since we have more confirmation that the trend will resume to the upside, showing new highs in the weekly/monthly.

If you're not long, you can gradually build a 15 to 80% of your capital position here, buying it over the course of a week or a month. If trading with leverage you need to wait for the next shorter term setup, but right now, it's possible that market makers want to scare off retail longs, so we can get a retracement during illiquid periods. Just focus on this: we want to see a daily low, or a 3 day timeframe LOW, sit above the 4402 mark, ON CLOSE. I can't stress this enough. Once we see this, we'll know with certainty that odds favor bulls, and that we can see prices well above the previous high in the future.

Good luck!

Ivan Labrie.
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I'd appreciate your comments, this took a considerable amount of research and charting time.
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Comment: The low was 4403, 1 rmb above support. Looks bullish overall, also, that drop margin called futures traders.
Excellent work Evan. Much appreciated. Are you expecting a short term dip to cool down a bit?
+1 Reply
B.Gates B.Gates
thank you
+1 Reply
Hi, thanks for the comments Bill.

I'm expecting the most frustrating outcome possible, to let down over-excited bulls and bears first.
This would be, a sideways movement. If this is the case, and we do get a session's low to sit above the aforementioned 4402 support level, it means we're seeing re-accumulation at higher levels, and a sign of even higher prices to come.

Right now, since we found support above the historical MtGox failure generated key level, at the 3300 rmb mark, we can expect price to reach for the next significant fundamental key level above, at 6555 rmb.

If we get the confirmation I want to see next, we're in excellent shape for a very constructive rally.

You're invested in it, right?

You can refer to my position sizing reccomendation for long term traders too. I reccomend an allocation of 15% to 80% of funds, in BTC, specially if you bought lower than this. To buy here, you need to wait for the confirmation outlined above, before entering long term trades. This % refers to your trading capital that you use for BTC.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
(we can treat this long term position like a stocks position, hedging declines shorting BTCCNY using futures, or leveraged margin positions funded with BTC collateral you own, to weather corrections...it would be excellent if we had liquid options for BTC traders...wonder if there is such a thing)
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B.Gates IvanLabrie
Thanks again. Yes, i'm in from lower. Also took your previous long. Closed margin for now and just holding spot. Waiting for the next long entry.
+1 Reply
Excellent, glad you took it.
Cheers!
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Dear followers, anyone with me on this trade still?
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Nice job Ivan once again!
+1 Reply
Thanks, let's see if it gives us more confirmation of higher prices.
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amaizing....
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