Continuing with the downwards trend after the PBoC market intervention on the Chinese exchanges at the beginning of the month and followed by the elimination of the no-fee policy by the three major exchanges in China, I think bitcoin will continue to go down to around 4750 CNY considering it's bullish tendency is at pause. Bears are in control again but not for long. We need to create a proper handle for the massive cup we had for 3 years, 1 month and 18 days. A proper handle won't be ready within one month. I expect Bitcoin to complete it's first H&S (red) towards the end of January and then dump even more, which would create the second H&S (green) to bring bulls back in control and resume the uptrend.
I expect this new uptrend to take us back to January's ATH around the middle of march (see chart) and then in the day of the spring equinox, the green dragon will be unleashed to take us to a new ATH, this time, around 13000 CNY or about 2000 USD at the time considering Trump's coming USD devaluation and China's continuing CNY devaluation in US-China's upcoming declared trade war.
In conclusion, I remain long term bullish, short term bearish until reaching 4750 CNY (750 USD) and expecting a major uptrend around the spring equinox driven by news. Very likely the proper regulation by the PBoC will be the expected Green Dragon trigger.
Of course, time will tell if this would work out this way or not, but have in mind that the handle will be much more consolidated and the uptrend much stronger if we touch the bottom a second time and make the handle three months long instead of just one.
More info about spring equinox in Chinese culture: earthsky.org/human-w...n-the-spring-equinox
I expect this new uptrend to take us back to January's ATH around the middle of march (see chart) and then in the day of the spring equinox, the green dragon will be unleashed to take us to a new ATH, this time, around 13000 CNY or about 2000 USD at the time considering Trump's coming USD devaluation and China's continuing CNY devaluation in US-China's upcoming declared trade war.
In conclusion, I remain long term bullish, short term bearish until reaching 4750 CNY (750 USD) and expecting a major uptrend around the spring equinox driven by news. Very likely the proper regulation by the PBoC will be the expected Green Dragon trigger.
Of course, time will tell if this would work out this way or not, but have in mind that the handle will be much more consolidated and the uptrend much stronger if we touch the bottom a second time and make the handle three months long instead of just one.
More info about spring equinox in Chinese culture: earthsky.org/human-w...n-the-spring-equinox
Comment:
Ooops. Previous chart was the wrong one.
Ooops. Previous chart was the wrong one.
Ready to go down the second shoulder to then decide for A or B.