After a huge move up (2900 CNY to 5200 CNY) we are now entering what appears to be a bearish cycle. With the block halving in the back and a .5 fib level seemingly holding properly, there are two possible scenarios that might happen:
Bullish: We are going to hold the trend line that has proven very important in the past 9 months. .5 fib level will hold. This results in a cup forming at around 3960 CNY as bottom. After that, we will continue to slowly rise upwards. We still need to bear in mind that in relation to the huge move that we did, we retraced only a fraction. History shows that Bitcoin fancys a good old fashioned fakeout before making a huge move upwards.
Bearish: Depending on the sell pressure, the .5 fib level and the trendline of past 9 months will be broken. Even then I would see 500$ as bottom as supply shock unfolds its effect and the former resistance builds a support.
I would love to see a bullish scenario, but what you wish for and what you get are usually two different things.
Bullish: We are going to hold the trend line that has proven very important in the past 9 months. .5 fib level will hold. This results in a cup forming at around 3960 CNY as bottom. After that, we will continue to slowly rise upwards. We still need to bear in mind that in relation to the huge move that we did, we retraced only a fraction. History shows that Bitcoin fancys a good old fashioned fakeout before making a huge move upwards.
Bearish: Depending on the sell pressure, the .5 fib level and the trendline of past 9 months will be broken. Even then I would see 500$ as bottom as supply shock unfolds its effect and the former resistance builds a support.
I would love to see a bullish scenario, but what you wish for and what you get are usually two different things.