In this chart I've taken two previous bubbles (2012 mini bubble and early 2013's) and compared them to the inverse of the price since December (the right most object). I've labelled fourteen movements in each of the scenarios that I feel are very similar and appear to be repeating (fractals). This 'shorting bubble' has become possible because the demand for bitcoin, which is generally only speculative, is being crushed by the rising popularity of margin and futures exchanges that allow shorting and therefore profitable downside movements - along with profit takers, constant inflation and large players who are trying to buy back in cheaper because of this.
The general structure appears to be: 1 to 5: a parabolic curve, with at least one bear trap, into a very violent high volume counter-movement away from the peak, 6: a bounce for distribution, as in all pump and dumps (or 'return to normal' in a bubble), 7: a spike that initiates a trend reversal in the mid-term, 8: a relatively slow move down, as a sort of shakeout for anyone still in a winning position from point 5 or earlier, 9 to 11: a relatively slow move back towards the pivot of the fractal, supposedly as the market maker accumulates their position for the next cycle with BBands compressing towards the end, 12 to 14: the price rises exponentially as previous resistances are broken, followed by a bear trap as we begin what may be another cycle.
My assumption is that, after breaking $210 (using Bitfinex prices), we will go parabolic thus completing the rest of the pattern. Price targets for short closes and longs are mentioned in the graph linked in the related ideas section. In case of rejection, stops should be at or around the pivot ($235) and longs would be safe after $250 is broken.
Still short from $235 as in previous posts. Was able to play the bounce to get a better average and will now be in profit even if the stop loss hits. Aiming to add to the short on a move to between $227 - $232.
Comments
XMANGO
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Why exclude 2014? Maybe because it doesn't fit your narrative, is more relative to current situation, and shows a total bleedout?
Path
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The whole point of this chart was to show and explain successful bubble patterns, so in that sense yes, it was not included because it doesn't fit my idea of the scenario. 2011 was not included as it does not fit the same structure. I broke even on this trade, and noted the price points in the description where I would consider this perception invalid. Could you explain why you think late 2013 - 2014 is more relative?
XMANGO
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Price structure, RSI, etc, resemble the same time last summer. A pump to get things going, then a bleed out over the Summer, ending in capitulation before Fall.
lowstrife
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Lol right up my alley. Comparison makes sense, similar to what I did earlier as well