I worked on a one-day timeframe to analyze the main long-term trends that have accompanied BTCEUR since 2017. The thick blue trendline highlights an important long-term uptrend although, following the bubble burst in December 2017, a symmetrical triangle formation is easily identifiable.
The pattern breakout in July 2020 has charged the BTC maximalists with hope for new ATHs. Even if this were to happen in the future, evolution appears much slower than one might imagine. After hitting €10.400, the BTC price has returned to just above €8.300 to retest FIB 23.6 and form a reverse .
In these days we have returned to talk about the Mt.Gox hack as a document from the Tokyo District Court dated June 30 indicates that a decision on compensation could soon be finalized and sets October 15 as the final date for receiving a rehabilitation plan that will allow victims to receive compensation. However, October 15 does not have to be the big decision day. Thus, the extension refers to the presentation of the rehabilitation plan and not to the reimbursement of the BTC: the trustee only has to submit a plan by October 15. As a result, it seems at least likely that the 150,000 BTC of the Mt. Gox trustee will not reach the markets in the short term.
In the medium term it is therefore more likely that, unless extraordinary events would upset the market, the price will retract towards FIB 38.2 and then will try to rebound.
A drop below the €8.000 threshold could however push the price towards lower levels and reopen a new long downtrend.