jonathanvn

Scenarios for Bitcoin in the rest of 2020 (1W)

Long
COINBASE:BTCEUR   Bitcoin / Euro
There are 2 main scenarios I see come to reality with Bitcoin .
Looking at the past these are very realistic scenarios backed by facts.
Note that my analysis is straight forward backed by this chart and neither bullish or bearish .
However I added Long to this analysis because at typing of writing I reopened 2 long positions in DOLLAR & EURO: 7970 USD & 8030 EUR.


If Bitcoin gets rejected at €9K on the weekly this could very well start a new trend on daily timeframe .
A downtrend towards a small demand zone of €7,3K - €6,8K which it will very likely will break.
The main demand zone which has competition with bulls is €6,8K - €6K.

If the demand zone gets a breakout back down, €5K is almost surely the end of this trend of reversal.
200EMA will be around that point in time on weekly and as shown in the past even with COVID19 shows a strong support level .
€5K was the main support level of 2018 where price bounced several times and acted as huge support.

In my analysis I see a low chance Bitcoin will hit any lower than €5K and thus bottom is reached.

If a new uptrend emerges starting off 200EMA on weekly you can expect a very volatile uptrend and will quickly recover towards €5,9K - €6,8K zone.
Next up is strong pressure from bears of upper side of bearish triangle, bears might push price back down at €8K level depending where we are at the time.
Anyhow this will be the 5th retest of this resistance level and thus a very important retest. If this gets rejected this wouldn't be very bullish .

If Bitcoin breaks triangle to upside, a new uptrend commences.
The triangle is a big formation where bulls and bears where fighting. I don't see price being pushed down after breaking out of this triangle.
A retest should be traded as this could be the last stop to hitting the last somewhat zone of supply €9K - €10K.
A very physcological level of supply where Bitcoin might hang and use as consolidation zone.
If Bitcoin continues to stay bullish after all this time it might go on its way to an ATH which is definitly a possibility.
Depending on volume traded rather than volatility . I don't see any likely chance of hitting a new ATH in 2020 yet.
€11,5K could be the high of the following months where price might get rejected, not consolidated, atleast unlikely.

Good news is needed to back up this analysis, FOMO is a must in the end of 2020 or beginning of 2021.
This would be a repeat of the scenario in the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018.

As seen with previous ATHs, the ATH happened around 1 year after the halving took place.
The first halving which happened on 29 November 2012 had a bullrun towards an ATH with a return of 8069%.
The second halving which happened on 9 June 2016 had a bullrun towards an High with a return of 289%.
The third halving will happen at an estimate of 12 May 2020 at time of writing.

The price could likely be already priced in by some, but I, on the otherside think otherwise. This could be just the very start.
Breaking this triangle and following this uptrend for the rest of the year would be the best bullish scenario I hope to see, yet still realistic.
Since federal Reserve started pumping stocks and other markets with printed money, Bitcoin was stated as a safehaven and alternative currency in media and news sites.
Bitcoin continued it uptrend longer than expected by most and climbed towards €8,5K level where we are now waiting and consolidating on lower timeframes.
With the halving in sight this is only good news following up on eachother. I want to end this idea by saying that corrections are healthy and needed in healthy market trends and don't always mean reversals.


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