Ground Control to moon mission: the Stochastic Eagle has landed
Last week I painted two bearish forecasts and we're now sitting in the middle of both but I think the pink one won't be fulfilled. Here's why:
-Stochastic Indicator plummeted to the absolutely oversold zone, this has stirred the market and as of now it looks like we are "bullish" after the drop, but the Stochastic RSI paints bearish divergence with prices over 7250€: that's hinting another dive soon.
-MACD did a bearish crossover (although for no reason apparently), that's looking bearish as of now. One could argue it's also bearish divergent if you draw the line from the first week of march highs (lower highs on MACD), although I wouldn't consider this a divergence. I have the regular 26vs12 day EMA MACD, so it doesn't accumulate signals in a period this long (over a month and a half).
-Although regular RSI, Stochastic, and the mixed Stochastich RSI are all hinting hidden bullish divergence, there's no clear signal of buying with this prices. As I said before, dailyStoch RSI will paint bearish divergence with prices over 7250€
So with this confluence in mixed bearish/bullish signals, and the fact that the 200-day EMA and 50-day EMA were really close to crossover, I'd say in the bigger scheme this could be considered an accumulation phase. Take a look at what happened in the first days of April: MACD was hinting a bullish crossover right before 50EMA plummeted below 200EMA, which coincidentally triggered a "final accumulation phase" in a triangular shape which then slingshoted up to f* up bear stop-losses.
What's going on now? MACD went bearish just before 50EMA met the 200EMA. This means we (The Market) all agree we can use prices a lil bit lower until all regular people go "YOLO MOON MISSION FINALLY! PUT MI MORTGAGE IN CRYPTO ASAP!". This being said, the daily Stochastic depleted way too fast into the oversold zone with "only" a 15% price drop, so I don't expect prices to plummet beyond the 50% Fib, and thus why I copypasted the "orange accumulation triangle": it looks exactly the same psychological pattern. We're shaking weak-handed buyers stop-losses right before slingshoting up again. We'll bounce up and down in a triangular shape until we go below yesterday's low and paint bullish divergence in all RSI, Stochastic and Stoch RSI. I think that will inevitably happen because we almost did a technical Touchdown in Stoch RSI (~1), Stoch went to record lows (~3) beyond the oversold levels in Apri's first week and regular RSI is in the fourties.
All in all, it looks like a clear picture to me. This week will plot something like an ABC or ABCDE triangular shape similar to what I depicted, so I'll try to accumulate BTC within the 50%-61.80% percentiles to sell it when any bearish momentum shows up in the hourly charts or near the 78.60% percentile. It will be a great week for daytraders if you catch the right swing. Accumulate at 7000€ and sell around 7300€.
I think buying is safe at this levels because it's also aligned with the 38.20% white Fib in the left, which we retraced over 61.80%. With Stochastics in the absolute oversold, I wouldn't expect another 15% price drop although be cautious and safe with your own money. I'm expecting a final breakup of the triangle and a bullish outcome because there's an underlying side-effect of the rest of Cryptos lifting BTC: the most important ones finished their "bubble crash" patterns and are now heading to previous support levels.
Good luck and have a nice week ahead everyone!
-Stochastic Indicator plummeted to the absolutely oversold zone, this has stirred the market and as of now it looks like we are "bullish" after the drop, but the Stochastic RSI paints bearish divergence with prices over 7250€: that's hinting another dive soon.
-MACD did a bearish crossover (although for no reason apparently), that's looking bearish as of now. One could argue it's also bearish divergent if you draw the line from the first week of march highs (lower highs on MACD), although I wouldn't consider this a divergence. I have the regular 26vs12 day EMA MACD, so it doesn't accumulate signals in a period this long (over a month and a half).
-Although regular RSI, Stochastic, and the mixed Stochastich RSI are all hinting hidden bullish divergence, there's no clear signal of buying with this prices. As I said before, dailyStoch RSI will paint bearish divergence with prices over 7250€
So with this confluence in mixed bearish/bullish signals, and the fact that the 200-day EMA and 50-day EMA were really close to crossover, I'd say in the bigger scheme this could be considered an accumulation phase. Take a look at what happened in the first days of April: MACD was hinting a bullish crossover right before 50EMA plummeted below 200EMA, which coincidentally triggered a "final accumulation phase" in a triangular shape which then slingshoted up to f* up bear stop-losses.
What's going on now? MACD went bearish just before 50EMA met the 200EMA. This means we (The Market) all agree we can use prices a lil bit lower until all regular people go "YOLO MOON MISSION FINALLY! PUT MI MORTGAGE IN CRYPTO ASAP!". This being said, the daily Stochastic depleted way too fast into the oversold zone with "only" a 15% price drop, so I don't expect prices to plummet beyond the 50% Fib, and thus why I copypasted the "orange accumulation triangle": it looks exactly the same psychological pattern. We're shaking weak-handed buyers stop-losses right before slingshoting up again. We'll bounce up and down in a triangular shape until we go below yesterday's low and paint bullish divergence in all RSI, Stochastic and Stoch RSI. I think that will inevitably happen because we almost did a technical Touchdown in Stoch RSI (~1), Stoch went to record lows (~3) beyond the oversold levels in Apri's first week and regular RSI is in the fourties.
All in all, it looks like a clear picture to me. This week will plot something like an ABC or ABCDE triangular shape similar to what I depicted, so I'll try to accumulate BTC within the 50%-61.80% percentiles to sell it when any bearish momentum shows up in the hourly charts or near the 78.60% percentile. It will be a great week for daytraders if you catch the right swing. Accumulate at 7000€ and sell around 7300€.
I think buying is safe at this levels because it's also aligned with the 38.20% white Fib in the left, which we retraced over 61.80%. With Stochastics in the absolute oversold, I wouldn't expect another 15% price drop although be cautious and safe with your own money. I'm expecting a final breakup of the triangle and a bullish outcome because there's an underlying side-effect of the rest of Cryptos lifting BTC: the most important ones finished their "bubble crash" patterns and are now heading to previous support levels.
Good luck and have a nice week ahead everyone!
Trade active:
well... that was an astonishingly accurate prediction. Kinda scary lol, I just literally copy-pasted the orange "accumulation triangle".
Indicators are painting hidden bearish divergences all over the place, that hints a price dive " Soon™ " unless for some unknown reason the market decides to enter überbull mode. Mind you the last triangle in the first days of April: right after the last hidden bearish divergence was formed, it was followed by a violent dump (B to C in the triangle) which then painted bullish divergence and slingshot up after some hesitation (D and E in the triangle).
Now, if we don't break down the blue line in prices which delimits a massive hidden bullish divergence in lows on the RSI indicator and we see bullish divergence in lows there's room for a slingshot move up without a hesitation phase, specially if the dive looks bulish divergent in MACD also. It'd basically be replaying the same pattern as it did before.
I'm not saying the market is bullish right now: quite the opposite. Hidden bearish divergences all over the place, but watch out for bullish divergences if/when prices retest the 61.80% or even 50% purple percentiles. I don't think there's room for a deep dive below those levels as stochastic indicators just barely went out the absolute oversold zone; and the white 38.20% Fib percentile on the left has proven decent support for a week.
Indicators are painting hidden bearish divergences all over the place, that hints a price dive " Soon™ " unless for some unknown reason the market decides to enter überbull mode. Mind you the last triangle in the first days of April: right after the last hidden bearish divergence was formed, it was followed by a violent dump (B to C in the triangle) which then painted bullish divergence and slingshot up after some hesitation (D and E in the triangle).
Now, if we don't break down the blue line in prices which delimits a massive hidden bullish divergence in lows on the RSI indicator and we see bullish divergence in lows there's room for a slingshot move up without a hesitation phase, specially if the dive looks bulish divergent in MACD also. It'd basically be replaying the same pattern as it did before.
I'm not saying the market is bullish right now: quite the opposite. Hidden bearish divergences all over the place, but watch out for bullish divergences if/when prices retest the 61.80% or even 50% purple percentiles. I don't think there's room for a deep dive below those levels as stochastic indicators just barely went out the absolute oversold zone; and the white 38.20% Fib percentile on the left has proven decent support for a week.