This is an update to the previous forecast see link below.
Based on what we have seen, we are now effectively in a battleground. The same 'big' holders who are on the verge of selling their crypto assets are the same people asking us to HODL. Bitcoin, I believe in you, but, you are not worth your money. You are worth our money, just not this much, and as the environmental implications become more imposing, so will the need for regulation, taxation and audit of miners; so will the need for celebrities to turn our attention to another crypto gimmick; so will the need for other distractions cloud our judgement as those who have pre-mined" spill their guts. Good for them. You got us. Why all this mad nonsense you ask? Because, we are a second away from midnight when it comes to BTC (in particular), and hopefully it stays "your crazy to say that", but am I? are we? Haven't we read all the books, watched all the movies, seen all the news, learned about all the shady after 50 years of declassified documents? Haven't we? "You're a conspirator!" Relax, facts are facts, just like the fact that there are closed "open meetings that happen in Switzerland once a year under a mountain that control the majority of our everyday lives "Haha" You say? One Jeff Bezos will make millions of teens squirm. One Jeff. And this meeting is no Jeff, possibly worst, possibly better, who knows, what we know, is that we're not in the club, because if we were, money would never be an issue.
Watch out guys, safe trading. Good luck have fun. Peace.
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Guys this is now becoming a sideways journey, still correcting. Range: 27-32k for the weekend ahead. As for next week 7th June everything still eerie, be on the lookout for impulsive swings, other than that expect the 20-25k area. If the market finds support here, extended 18k then we are looking at a trend reversal to 36-39k. Good luck have fun.
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SHORT Writing this on 14/06/2021 @ 23:30 - 00:25 pm GMT+3 - BTC @32,300 and going up - Dangerous territory (particularly for our collective sanity).
Here is an update (skip to part 4 for the update, stick to part 1, 2 and 3 to understand it better).
Part 1 Capitalism (the kind of mutant that is now, not in text) is great, but is the inevitable destroyer of Democracy. So far the scales are tittering. We (I hope never) might be entering a dystopia, and you can believe that this kind of reality is still possible… particularly when we suck up to the Money, and we have to, how else survive. It is when we glorify it as the only measure of (not physical but) moral value - that is when things become scary, senseless, and chaotic. I mean a bit of chaos here and there is cool, but in a controlled environment and within reasonable capacity, otherwise… well, you’ll get it, if you really ask for it. The saying goes, you don’t play games with the Devil (we are talking morals not religion (but what of morals? Then what of anyone who gives a sh*t? In other words, guns and hoes? anyhow). There should be a better way, but not alone…but that’s a whole different story and for another sitting.
Back to BTC.
Part 2 What does Part 1 mean? Money controls the world, and Politics is funded by much of the Money that supports it (vaguely said). What does this mean? It means that El Salvador is a play. It means that, yes it might become legal tender there now, and it will become elsewhere in the near future, but, what it is for now is: a play. In other words, while we are buying, the industrial investors are closing their positions… why? Because we are still in a sideways correction.
Money flows to Money. The more the volume, the more control over the flow. Who controls flow? Government? Partially. It’s banks. Partially. It’s shareholders of those banks. Partially. Same shareholders, on behalf of Political figures. Partially. You get the picture.
Part 3 So within this truth: 1. The 15M candles will struggle at the 32,300 area before at the very least retracing to 31,300 in the next 12H. This is a buy signal until the 34-37k area. 2. What I am inclined to is, the continuation of the correction, at a sideways journey, cruising at an altitude of 30,500 for now. Don’t twitch. It will still needs to retrace (or break) at the 29,250 area if any real upward movement is to happen. 3. What happens next is puzzling. The next 48 hours one of three things will happen: a) it will explode to 35k (momentarily), b) (my take) The next 48 hours it will create a head and shoulders type pattern, suggesting upward movement before a 1,2 correction, or c) (also my take) In the next 4 hours it will drop to 31K, followed by an impulse downwards movmeent, sub 29K. This means that on the 48H we will see it sideways around the 28-30K area.
Part 4 Conclusively (and this is not financial advice), I would short at 32,400-32,470 until 31K, exit, probably buy until 32K, exit and re-assess. BTC is now in volatile waters and in a new sideways pattern (let's see if we go back to the initial correction or create a new cycle, nonetheless other factors are still in play like the health of the stock market). We thought we saw volatility on the 2-4H candles. Get ready folks. We are back to hungry... for the love of all that is holy. Watch out guys. Divide by half. Adjust and overcome. Safe trading.
Trade active
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Updated 03/07/2021
The idea:
This is the final update for this BTC prediction. Good luck have fun everyone.
If BTC: rises to 32k in the next 3 weeks and resists, we will see 25k again. If BTC: rises to 32k in the next 3 weeks and breaks, we will see 40k tap. If BTC: 29K in the next 3 weeks resists, we will see 20k tap. If BTC: 29K in the next week falls under 26.5k, we will see 18-19k tap. If: we continue to go sideways, then you can just expect 30% volatility range with no clear direction.
My personal bet would be to short at 31.5-33k, but that depends on the news cycle. We are either mid-way through this correction, or this will stretch until Q2 of 2022. Either way. It is still sideways. This means, identify short-term trends and don't get too greedy.
Appreciate your thoughtful reply. Let's see how big this range is that we are in.
epiclegendaryman
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@HiSteveKaplan, Appreciate your donation :) You didn't have to.
Feel free to PM me with any questions, this goes out to everyone, so yes brother, no need to donate, spread the love and help people buy the dip or avoid the loss and that's good enough for me. Peace.
KiaansPapa
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Sick call and analysis! Following. Missed on the update on the 3rd but this is worth another update. I thought we would be at 27k-30k too. I lost my ass shorting BTC at 32k. I’m a dumb fuck what can I say. Anyway still interested in your analysis and how you look at the financial world in general. Excited to review some more of your work! Thanks for sharing.
epiclegendaryman
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@HiSteveKaplan Thank you for your support. Fyi: El Salvador news about adoption of BTC as legal tender is both a biggie and a sham at the same time, this means heavy socio-political-financial market movements, a shift is occurring. They will want to pump and dump (10-20% up and down) and keep it sideways for as long as possible (holidays when we are vaccinated and relaxed or crying over a new strain of Covid, either way), it is a volatility hedge against increasing doubts associated with the stock market and failed debt economics. Now, when the bubble will burst (stock), that we don’t know yet - follow the big money - traditional metals and commodities are essential hedges during a depression, probably gold, silver, wheat etc... safe and sturdy. If you are only playing the crypto game then a different story. Hint: when you see unprovoked 10% movements on the 1-5 minute candle that is the signal to enter the opposite direction and best bet during this time, is to stick to the expectation of a 5%+ take profit, not 15% and if you hit 15% great, close. This is not financial advice. Safe trading
Radiovan
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Thank you!
epiclegendaryman
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@radbalko 👍 Adapt, adjust and win. Safe trading.
Radiovan
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@epiclegendaryman, can i ask you that you use Elliott Waves this method ?
epiclegendaryman
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@radbalko, as you may know, there are many variables, it is good practice to overlap technical analysis, so the answer is partially yes.
Radiovan
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@epiclegendarymThank you for the quick answer, I've only been learning for about half a year, and when I see an analysis like yours, I always have a lot of respect!