BTC Turning Point - $11k/€8.7k, sideways or drop to $4.4k/€3.6k
This is a further expansion on the previous idea (www.tradingview.com/...80-if-we-break-5765/)
Chat is in Eur, but I'm showing relevant approx USD values below too.
Blue lines are broad support levels (prior to Dec).
Red lines are broad resistance levels (prior to Dec).
Cyan arrows show a few potential scenarios.
PLEASE NOTE: There are resistance and support levels in between the major ones I've outlined and price could bounce between them. This is more a medium term view rather than the next couple of days.
We bounced off the $5500/€4500 support area pretty strong, helped by the US SEC/Congress event.
At this point we could:
Fairly Likely - Find resistance at the 0.786 fib retracement from ATH and go back down to support around our current price of $8500/€7000. People make take profit, fear could set in again.
Possible - Break through 0.786 fib, up to $10700/€8800, and then find resistance at 0.618 ATH fib. Momentum could keep is going to this point. We might have enough volume if it sustains!
Unlikely - Keep pushing through to as high as $14300/€11700, up to 0.5 fib from ATH. Not enough good news to make this happen.
Really if we do either of the three, we'll be making more progress to breaking the recent bearish trend.
BUT, we've not had a slew of good news for BTC. It's likely we'll bounce off 0.786 and then either drop or continue to go sideways a bit.
Step Down - Possible
I favour that there's a good chance we'll repeat some of the 'step downs' we've had in the recent bearing trend AND there's a good chance we'll continue.
I've highlighted a section which shows a common pattern in this downtrend:
1) Price drops sharply
2) Recovers fairly quickly, bouncing off a strong support area, just under original price
3) Finds resistance, goes down and sideways
4) GOTO 1!
RSI is also very high at 60+. This typically indicates price will go down. Combined with the approach to a strong resistance level, we'd need a big push to keep going up.
(plus lots of bots use RSI as a strong indicator)
Really, if we push past $9100/€7450 then things are looking up. If we start going down before - there's a good chance we could drop significantly through the $4400/€3600 support area.
This is purely based on the assumption that we'll repeat the previous patterns where we take a sharp drop after finding resistance.
That all said, we could get some good news, buyers could keep coming, we could find resistance at $9100/€7450 and then bounce off the next support level only to keep going up. But I really think we need some good media to being new investors in. There are signs of this with some bull news.
Recent articles pulled from Google News (UK):
Bull:
"Price continues to recover after punishing January and fears" - The Independent, 3 hours ago
"Price LIVE: BTC rises as optimists return to predict $50000" - The Express, 5 hours ago (Express is always bullish it seems!)
"Price rises again following huge cryptocurrency crash" - The Independent - 7th Feb
"Wells Fargo strategist: Bitcoin and the market are correlated" - CNBC, 12 hours ago
"Litecoin Is Now a Surprise Favorite of Criminals Tired of Bitcoin" - Fortune, 14 minutes ago (Not positive overall, but people may assume it drives the value up)
"This crypto-millionaire bought a Lamborghini for $115 thanks to bitcoin" - CNBC, 20 hours ago
Bear:
"Bitcoin - what the experts have said" - The Guardian, 7 minutes ago (very bearish)
"ECB official backs bitcoin clampdown" - The Guardian, 10 minutes ago (jeez, really pumping out those bear stories!)
Chat is in Eur, but I'm showing relevant approx USD values below too.
Blue lines are broad support levels (prior to Dec).
Red lines are broad resistance levels (prior to Dec).
Cyan arrows show a few potential scenarios.
PLEASE NOTE: There are resistance and support levels in between the major ones I've outlined and price could bounce between them. This is more a medium term view rather than the next couple of days.
We bounced off the $5500/€4500 support area pretty strong, helped by the US SEC/Congress event.
At this point we could:
Fairly Likely - Find resistance at the 0.786 fib retracement from ATH and go back down to support around our current price of $8500/€7000. People make take profit, fear could set in again.
Possible - Break through 0.786 fib, up to $10700/€8800, and then find resistance at 0.618 ATH fib. Momentum could keep is going to this point. We might have enough volume if it sustains!
Unlikely - Keep pushing through to as high as $14300/€11700, up to 0.5 fib from ATH. Not enough good news to make this happen.
Really if we do either of the three, we'll be making more progress to breaking the recent bearish trend.
BUT, we've not had a slew of good news for BTC. It's likely we'll bounce off 0.786 and then either drop or continue to go sideways a bit.
Step Down - Possible
I favour that there's a good chance we'll repeat some of the 'step downs' we've had in the recent bearing trend AND there's a good chance we'll continue.
I've highlighted a section which shows a common pattern in this downtrend:
1) Price drops sharply
2) Recovers fairly quickly, bouncing off a strong support area, just under original price
3) Finds resistance, goes down and sideways
4) GOTO 1!
RSI is also very high at 60+. This typically indicates price will go down. Combined with the approach to a strong resistance level, we'd need a big push to keep going up.
(plus lots of bots use RSI as a strong indicator)
Really, if we push past $9100/€7450 then things are looking up. If we start going down before - there's a good chance we could drop significantly through the $4400/€3600 support area.
This is purely based on the assumption that we'll repeat the previous patterns where we take a sharp drop after finding resistance.
That all said, we could get some good news, buyers could keep coming, we could find resistance at $9100/€7450 and then bounce off the next support level only to keep going up. But I really think we need some good media to being new investors in. There are signs of this with some bull news.
Recent articles pulled from Google News (UK):
Bull:
"Price continues to recover after punishing January and fears" - The Independent, 3 hours ago
"Price LIVE: BTC rises as optimists return to predict $50000" - The Express, 5 hours ago (Express is always bullish it seems!)
"Price rises again following huge cryptocurrency crash" - The Independent - 7th Feb
"Wells Fargo strategist: Bitcoin and the market are correlated" - CNBC, 12 hours ago
"Litecoin Is Now a Surprise Favorite of Criminals Tired of Bitcoin" - Fortune, 14 minutes ago (Not positive overall, but people may assume it drives the value up)
"This crypto-millionaire bought a Lamborghini for $115 thanks to bitcoin" - CNBC, 20 hours ago
Bear:
"Bitcoin - what the experts have said" - The Guardian, 7 minutes ago (very bearish)
"ECB official backs bitcoin clampdown" - The Guardian, 10 minutes ago (jeez, really pumping out those bear stories!)
