I'm fairly new to this having done what I feel to be quite a lot of background learning on TA, so does anyone have any thoughts on this idea? Am I misinterpreting??
Doesn't always feel good to be right.. It's HODL time!!!
tweedledumrooftile
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Having said that, I'm not sure I was right on a TA basis, but fundamentals took over in a big way..
Gokic
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Its going down.. ABC correction. A B are finished, down to point C, then back up.
tweedledumrooftile
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@Gokic, Thanks for your reply, just to be clear on this, are you saying point A would be at 22nd Dec? or 31st Dec? If point C was yesterday.. time will tell!
Gokic
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@tweedledumrooftile, yes, point A on 22.dec, point B 6.1., point C probably these days... C is usualy lower then point A ...
that is just my thought....i am not a PRO ;)
OACFX
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Hi mate, try to have a think about the perceptions of other traders,
1. Is the real mass market sentiment that BTC will crash?
2. Is the perception that its just a correction and will gain in future?
Market structure shows a strong bottom but until we hold below your blue line convincingly then no downside with be created. After all, the BTC market is in one of the biggest bull runs in history, so why would you considering shorting?
Try to trade the chart and not your own thoughts, because it might not be what the mass market believes.
If you can anticipate others in the market, you will be successful.
tweedledumrooftile
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@OACFX, Hi, thanks for your reply and useful guidance. Yes I can see what you mean, I suppose I was approaching it purely from a TA perspective but should also be keenly aware of fundamental factors. With BTC in particular I suppose at the moment there is some speculation as to whether a newer more efficient coin might be able to take over from it, so perhaps that is part of the cause of the recent downward slope.
In terms of my TA itself, I was concerned particularly about the validity of the lower line, and perhaps I should be starting from an earlier point which might give better correlation with the various low points? Perhaps somewhere around the beginning of December perhaps?
jamesb123
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Your blue marker between 9,000 and 10,000 looks like good resistance as it hasn't moved down from that line in a while. Looks like once it touches that line it's going up like it done previously a few times. If it were to move upwards from this line, your main goal would be to reach the downtrend line you've put in
tweedledumrooftile
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@jamesb123, Thanks yes that makes good sense now. And additional data since I posted this shows indeed so far it hasn't dropped below the ~9,500 line. I guess my overall thought was that from what I've learned reading about TA and a descending triangle pattern with horizontal lower line the likelihood is for a breakout downwards, and in this case in an order of magnitude around £5k i.e. about 1/2 the current value. What I may be getting wrong is the starting point for my lower line - i.e. should it begin further back in the past, which would give it more of an upward trend leaving a more symmetrical triangle pattern.. Time will tell!