I have felt for a while that the bear market low would be much lower than the June 18th low. The previous two bear market lows were both down approximately 85% from their peaks. A similar percentage drop for this bear market would lower the price of Bitcoin to between 10k and 11k. I'm not convinced the price will go that low, but I could see a bottom around 15k.
But, I have also been impressed with the resilience of Bitcoin in the face of all the macro issues facing the markets. Because Bitcoin has been highly correlated with the stock market, I believe all of the macro issues facing the stock market will also affect Bitcoin's performance. I believe that will determine if the price of Bitcoin goes higher or lower from here.
I always try to keep an open mind, and as such, I have to entertain the possibility that the June 18th low could be the bear market low.
Looking at the daily time frame, Bitcoin is forming a nice cup pattern. Is it possible this ultimately forms a Cup and Handle pattern? Because Cup and Handle patterns are typically continuation patterns, if it plays out, this could lead to Bitcoin pushing back up into the 25K to 30K level.
I am in no way an expert in technical analysis, so I would appreciate any feedback. Am I way off in my analysis?
In some ways, I hope the June 18th low is the bear market bottom. In other ways, I wouldn't mind if Bitcoin dropped to 15k or lower because that would mean even cheaper prices, and I am still accumulating positions for the next bull market. My view is that the next bull market is still a long way off, probably later in 2024, so there will be plenty of time to fill positions. Again, this is just my opinion, and I could be way off.
Maybe it’s too early to guess where the bottom is. For me the uptrend line is an Elliot wave 1, the cup is a wave 2 bottoming out just higher than the wave 1 start. This suggests to me the next move is a wave 3 which tends to be a rapid move up. To where I couldn’t say but I think the strength of that move will determine whether we have already seen the bottom of whether there is greater lows to come
Sancho1883
⋅
@Sancho1883 or whether there are greater lows to come*