Greetings, For almost 2 months now bitcoin can't stay above 60K, the lows are increasing and the highs are not, thus forming a pretty clear resistance zone and lower boundary, forming an ascending triangle. But whatever you call it, the narrowing volatility is obvious and sooner or later there will be a breakout.
Long Scenario. The triangle's bottom line can be drawn in different ways, for example, from the rally of 40K, where we see a paronormal candle, or from the level of 45K, depending on this potential of this triangle in the first case the triangle base is 53-55%, in the second case 40%. I have plotted both of these potential targets at 82K and 94K, with a time resistance of 77K.
Short scenario The breakdown of the triangle's bottom also coincides with the breakdown of the uptrend from 10 thousand and may be the beginning of the correction, the support area in this case is 45 and 40 thousand.
Realistic scenario Statistically April-May are good months for bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general, these months show growth. In the current market situation, I give preference to the long scenario, as it coincides with the general mood of both the stock market and indices, including the cryptocurrency market. The total number of longs and shorts on such exchanges on btfinex, Bitmex, Binance is now 85% to 15% in favor of longs. There is a risk that there will be a hunt for stops before the start of growth. In any case, you need to wait for a breakout on good volume, the volume will confirm a true breakout.
Always use a stop loss, and do not use a leverage greater than x3. A trader should always have tomorrow.
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Yes, the situation is now tense, to put it mildly, the entire crypto market depends on the price and movements of bitcoin, and even with little confidence it is difficult to determine the further movement. For myself, I chose the position of fixing most of the deposit in stables, with short-term ID transactions. And then we will look))) Thanks for the idea!