Its been awhile. I haven't traded due to personal reasons but had a comment to make since I noticed people calling for a deep pullback.
Usually after a huge move like this, people think bitcoin retraces and think about shorting it because support is so much lower so they naturally try to short or look for deep pullbacks.
Bitcoin doesn't normally give you that.
This was about as strong of a move as you'll see on a 4H chart. Notice how the candles all stayed small. No huge candles, no big wicks. Very controlled due to consistent buying.
Expect a shallow pullback and then higher high. After you get that move higher, its more likely to get a deep pullback but not necessarily. I'll try to post examples of this in the past. But chances of 20-30% pullback of the move are more likely than 50-60% or lower. About 85% of the time you get a shallow pullback and higher high.
Its trading so anything is possible AND we still have election news that can totally change this so no guarantees of course.
Good luck.
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There are few that didn't work. One in particular was a big move that was last October with only a handful of 4H candles with the last candle being a $1700 move that ended in a massive $1000 wick.
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Trade is closed.
I bought the dip all the way down from $15500 to $14600 and averaged 15k and sold now at $15900. This was the first pullback and satisfied the new high. My big concern is all the failed 4H candles could not close above resistance this week. I will look to re-enter IF we can clear 16k and hold above that on the 4H and start to build support.
Otherwise, I'll look to see what happens if dip lower. Possibly hold a large ascending triangle in the $15200 to $15500 range.
But if we have a sharp fall and can't get back above $15500 we may be looking at a deeper pullback.
Where do you see the largest pull back target area being? Psychological support at 10k seems attractive but not entirely data based. I have to admit, I have been viewing (since reaching 13K) this as a chance to wait until around March for a very deep pull back ($9600 level).
rzmb44
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@TonyTTops, Sorry for delay. I didn't get my normal comment notification. For this trade, we had the quick pullback and new high. It still could easily go higher, but if we dip lower than 15k, I would be looking for a much larger pullback. Crypto has a tendency to either run without a pullback or pullback farther than most think. I may try to trade the ascending triangle if I like the price action. Otherwise, we could get a something that goes down quite a bit further.
If we go deeper then my favorite areas are:
$13800 - 2019 yearly high and past yearly opens. Also the .382 fib (least likely but I will still build longs here).
$12000 - confluence of price action and can clear the .618 traders out if it dips a bit lower.
$11000 - .79 fib is a bitcoin special. It loves that area and has a nice confluence of price action (I would load up on this one).