The driving force behind the latest move higher is the growing belief that the SEC will shortly grant a raft of spot Bitcoin ETF applications. According to Bloomberg research, there is a window between November 9 and November 17 when all twelve ETF applications could be approved. The Bloomberg analysts assign a 90% chance that a Bitcoin ETF will be approved before January 10, 2024.
Looking further ahead, the 40k level may not hold Bitcoin for long. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization may well accelerate higher if/when spot ETFs are approved, especially as BTC nears its latest ‘halving’ event due in late April. After the halving, the block reward for miners will be reduced by 50% to 3.125 BTC from 6.25. The weekly chart shows resistance at 40k and a fraction under 43k before a gap to 48.2k appears.
If spot ETFs are not approved, Bitcoin could quickly fall to 32.4k before 31.8k and 31.0k come into focus.