cryptodisco

That Second Lower High Has Made Me Feel BEARISH. Is this WAVE 4?

Short
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello Traders,

That second lower high Bitcoin made has alarm bells ringing in my head and made me feel really bearish . This leads me to believe we are in a wave 4 retracement. If price breaks above the LH then this TA is invalid.

Is it possible to map the course of this retrace?

I have copied a retracement fractal (there are many) from one of Bitcoins previous dumps.

The weekly 100MA will be sweeping through and I am expecting some interaction with price in the form of a bear flag .

The weekly 50MA is also sweeping through and just so happens, as if by some bizarre coincidence to line up right on the 0.618 golden ratio retrace.

The gann fan is in place and lines up nicely.

In my head this would seem a logical course of events for price action on this retrace.
Comment: Here is a better look at that gann fan and my projected course of the weekly 100MA.
Comment: Things are getting dangerous here. A 3rd LH has been printed and there appears to be a classic H+S formation forming here.
Comment: Right ok this is slow going. Price dropped below the neckline of that slanted H+S just to wick on a fib and come back up again. As we are waiting for the price to make its mind up I want to share some other things I am noticing on indicators and other TA tools. In this picture.... you will see there is a fib time line approaching which we will discuss in a minute. There has also been a cross over of moving averages. The last time they crossed like that the price dropped. In this next chart.... you can see the big picture with the fib time tool lining up with dramatic changes in price direction. I have also put a MACD indicator on the chart. The MACD is reading the second highest reading on that indicator for BTC ever and has formed a bearish crossover. This indicator alone is showing bearishness.
Comment: I have also gone back through old BTC price action to look at the retraces and am noticing a lot of similarity's in this double top price formation then 2 lower highs. These are just a few examples...
Comment: I should have mentioned this earlier but of course we have the Elliot Wave count. This is the count I have, happy with it, solid count. I know EW can sometimes be "subjective" so if your count does not match this count then show me. Other than that all TA seems rigid, consistent and its pointing down.
Comment: Right OK its definitely looking more bearish now. Its formed a broadening descending wedge.
Comment: hmm
Comment: incredible. that little h+s broke out. TA invalid.

Comments

Great, can you sharewith me this good script
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cryptodisco michaelbidv
@michaelbidv, what do you mean? There is a share button under the chart.
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I agree short-term that it will go like this, I just think it will be a much stronger and faster paced sell off tough in 3 days (29th of May)
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cryptodisco HodlCrypot
@HodlCrypot, interesting insight. I am also wondering if the corrective move will be quite violent and a shorter duration due to the nature of the parabolic rise. On the other hand though, all retraces have structure and rules. There are solid fib cluster areas where I am expecting them to act as support for bounces and then act as resistance for direction change. The price respects the gann fan and will wiggle its way down through the correction channels. There is of course the possibility of this retrace being an ABCDE which will add complexity to the retrace and duration of the drop.
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