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Bitcoin Bullish Triangle Or Double Top, Part 3

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin has been consolidating the past days. I am using this term, because 2 days ago it looked a little bit like possible top formation but since we have not seen any big drops and supports have been holding, objectively we need to see it as consolidation. Low time frame bearish formations have not been reaching their targets and we have been making higher lows as well. Usually when the price stays this close to the high for a while and not seeing any big rejections, chances for a break of the resistance increase.

Short term still a lot can happen:

Bullish version: We simply break up from current prices or we might still drop to 8800/8700 and then still form a bull flag and break up.
Bearish version: We see the curved line break and see some violent high volume selling that easily breaks the 8800/8700. If this happens, we should be dropping towards the 8300/8000 zone.

These curved formations, have been showing them selves a lot the past 2/3 months, ever since we broke the 4200 and we got in this parabolic movement. These shapes have been very useful since for the lower time frame trading. Higher time frame they are less useful, because there is no real target than the starting point of it. Very similar to a wedge , which sometimes can be the start of a very big wave, but sometimes also just reach their target and then turn again.

On the right, we can see that channel i showed since the start. I wasn't really sure about it, but it does seem to be a real one though. The support broke once again, but no real dump yet so at this point it can still go both ways. Usually with these things, the breakout level is important to watch. While i am writing this, it made a small bounce up, but as long as it doesn't break that red zone, it could simply just be a small retest of former support and then go down again. If it breaks that level, chances increase again for another attack of the big resistance around 9400.

So even if we break the curved line, doesn't mean the bull trend on these time frames is already over. Think the 8800 is still a key level between bull and bear trend on the lower time frames. But i am giving it a bit more room until like 8700, since this market sometimes extends moves a bit. As always, volume will be a key factor. The selling volume in the yellow circle on the left, was not enough to break the bulls. So we can assume, that for a real bearish movement, it needs to increase those volume candles.

Levels for the low time frame are:
9400/9450
9250ish (has been a level many times past days)
9100 can be of meaning as well, but a small one.
895ish could be as well, but i think if the 9100 breaks, more likely to see 8800 get tested.

The bullish formations still say 10K could be reached, several patterns giving that target and above it as well. For the mid-term, the most important level to watch is still 7500ish IMO and 230ish for ETH. So putting bias aside, above 7500 we should continue to see the market is in a bull trend. Any correction up to like 6000 even, would still be just a big (and healthy) correction IMO , but when 7500 it could go both ways on the higher time frames. Crypto has been too mean in 2018, to simply think the bear market is already over. As long as we don't see some good and big retests/consolidations, so making solid foundations to continue the bull market, real danger will continue to hang above this market.

To give an impression, bitcoin rallied too much and too fast. That's why i think the danger of a huge dump (2000/3000 points) keeps hanging above this market. When we look at Dash on the left or the alt coin market cap chart, those rallies were smaller and had bigger consolidations during the rally the past month. I have learned in my first 2 months when i started to look at crypto last half year of 2017, not to underestimate this unique market. So being stubborn about this market is something i have let go a long time ago. I am not a long term investor of crypto (of course have some things locked away), but as long as we don't see a solid period of consolidation, like towards the blue curved lines and move there for a few months, only then will i really believe the bear market might have ended. Another option, would be maybe a big rally straight through the 13/15k :). That would mean that i have underestimated this market and that the pro's in this world, really loaded up in the 3K zone for the long term and pumped this market to prices so it never looks back again below the 10K. All still just guessing, i personally like to take things one step at a time.

Reason why i am not talking about resistances on the up side, because i simply don't see any. Past 2 months i have seen many people looking at levels from 2018, but i seriously don't think they have any value at all. Of course a number like 10K has some value, but for the rest, think only 13K might be a big one. That was the level i kept talking about in 2018 as well, first few months of that that year. That was a key level/zone to me then and might still have some value.





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Previous analysis:
Comment: There is a big fight going on the past hours, again broke the 9400ish, but again a lot of resistance. So far the bulls are holding their ground though, not seeing any big rejections. This channel on the left might be something to watch. But i think, as long as that parabolic move stays intact, the bulls are in full control. Think it's support is now around 9300.
A fast volume dump and break of 9240/200, might be a confirmation that at least this attempt to break up has failed.

The alts coins are just so bad today, it's like they are finding an excuse to drop. Not believing this rally at all, but it would not be the first time that Bitcoin has his own party and just does whatever it wants.


Comment: To make things clear, usually when we see a third touch of the high (and not just below, but really the high) inside of a triangle pattern, it means it will eventually break. Of course no guarantees and at first even a rejection like we have now can happen to form another higher low. But if this fails, with a break of 9220 being the first one, it can still mean the triangle has failed. For now, i would watch the curved line since it has done it's job past days. When wanting to ignore possible noise, 9050ish (yesterday's low), should really be the max to keep this triangle alive IMO.

So objectively, the break up can certainly still happen, but we have some volume rejection now, but maybe more worrying, are the alts that are either dead or dropping.

OI is also very high and has been increasing a lot past week, so a big might happen soon.

Comment: That curved line did it's work once again and it got up and it looks like we have a solid break out. At least some volume increase during the way up. So far not weird rejection or Bart moves. So at this point i don't see anything yet to think that this will fail. Except for ETH, alts are still dead and still don't seem they want to go up. So alts are not backup up this rally so far.
The last push up was from 9300ish, so we can say that we can not drop below this level anymore. In theory it should not even drop below the 9400/9450. But with Bitcoin we tend to see wicks get through certain levels and eventually just being noise. So a drop below 9450/20, i can only say be careful.

If we see a high volume dump and high speed, it might get dangerous even. Until then, follow the curved parabolic line, because that has been THE pattern the to follow so far

Comment: When zooming out a bit, we can see that the volume is decent, but not a real breakout volume. So big chance we might see a pullback to test support first. If we get to see another push up then, volume really needs to kick on, otherwise this rally will be temporarily

Comment: Made another small bull flag and broke up again. Like we are back in 2017 :)

Alts are waking up now as well, a bit late but at some movement now. But without getting too excited, lets try to stay objective now.

The curved line is still in full play, where it might end, can't be said, but a break of it eventually should happen. Now when looking in the middle, we can see this last push was clearly smaller than the previous one. This can be a sign of loosing momentum (for the short term). So if we see another push up and it becomes even smaller than the last one, it will be very likely to see a good correction down. So when it moves in what could become a bearish wedge, it will become very likely.

As long as we don't see a big dump below the 9350/450, we can assume the trend is still up for the short/mid-term.



Comment: Broke up pretty fast this last push, making a wedge less likely now. So where i said, the rally is smaller than previous one, might be wrong. Meaning, because the flag was much smaller, maybe it can be considered as 1 push and not 2. Also still not seeing any real profit taking.

Making one small bull flag after the other so far
Comment: Amazing to see the strength of Bitcoin lately, all bearish patterns get invalidated as if they have no value at all. Just gets bought up as if there is only 1 direction.

This parabolic move is the thing i have been showing past days and is the only thing that really worked without any noise and even today it has bounced up from it a few times. So i have no other way of thinking that it's real.

We can see now, it has a hard time to bounce up from it. No surprise because the line is becoming almost straight now. On the right we also have a possible wedge, it's shape is very ugly but the volume is dropping inside of it. So can't say if it's an ugly ascending triangle or a bearish wedge.

So i see either a big jump up from here, like a big squeeze up, or we start to make a correction from now on. So based on the curved line, we could get an answer any second now. I am not going to predict which one it will be, because i am not crazy to make a prediction like that in this crazy market.

But think a drop below 9860ish, might give a reaction. On the upside it seems to be 9960


Comment: Think we can already assume, that wedge i just posted is almost invalidated. Still below it, but almost talking taking too long already. If it drops it has to happen withing like 5/10 min i think. Otherwise likely to be just another failed wedge making a counter move to the upside

The curved line broke, but if we don't see a reaction, it simply means it doesn't want to drop. Gold did a similar thing yesterday, breaking the parabolic move, dropped a little but, but went side ways and the simply moving up again. So in other words, if it doesnt drop soon and a significant amount, chances are much bigger we continue to move up.

To be clear everyone, these movements are no real match for basic TA. There is a simple rule that does work and has worked a lot past 2 months. When it doesn't drop when it should (for example an H&S or a bearish wedge), the market intentions are then the opposite. So it when it doesnt drop where it "should", it will prob just make a counter move and move up

Comment: Past hour since the breakout, bit weird with Binance. While other were way above 10.000, Binance didn't want to break it. Now also this drop and not being a wick, not it is really staying there for quite some time now. I find it very weird, but don't know what it could mean at the moment.

Again disappointing to see how alts are still dead, even after being up for an hour now and even stable price of bitcoin.

Comment: Update on the fractal

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This pump is probably influenced by the happenings in Hong Kong. I cashed out today, but might jump back in if it stays strong, until 12000. Cheers!
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Nice description botje, see here the original prediction from 8000 to 10,000-11,000 here:
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500$ more spike