Recently I've been playing around with Log/Non-log Fibs and charts. There are a lot of possible fibs we can draw but these three shown here, have most confirmed touches.
We begin with the ATH-ATL (All time high - All time low) this fib is drawn from top of the bull run to december lows in 2018. Because of the time span of this fib this is the most important fib and it should outweigh the other two. For major moves this has been the one to watch. We can see recent runs SF (Swing Fail) got rejected exactly at the .618 level and after that fail it found support on the .382.
This opened it up to draw fibs from the SF to the ATL . On lower time frame it even respected that Log fib at the .886 and .786. In the proces bitcoin created a which we broke down of. On that breakdown we found support at the .618 Log ATL-SF.
We created a range between the .618 Log ATL-SF and the Non log fib from Start Run to Swing Fail. The .5 fib of that one co-aligned with the 200DEMA (Daily ). This range started to provide liquidity on both sides creating the possibility of a big move.
First we took Lower liquidity and found support on the .382 Non-log SR-SF. This touch down also at the same time validated the lower channel/wedge . When we found support there, for a short moment we saw accumilation take place and we had negative funding for a while (shorts pay longs) indicating a move up.
That move happened and bitcoin retested the structure of the previous range at 9500-10100. After some daily candle closes also that upper could be confirmed. And on that second touch all signs indicated a move down.
That move down was at first a slow bleed but turned into a pretty nasty drop with little bounces on the levels. Untill we saw a bounce at the lower again combined with the .5 fib Log ATL-SF and .236 ATH-ATL.
This pushed us up to test bottom of the previous range again at 7870 which we got a hard rejection from.
For trend to test the upper again it needs to hold the .382 Non log SR-SF level at around 7400. A close below the level increases the probability of continuation and could bring us to test 6600 again and maybe even lower.
Drop below 7400, watching for that close.