Dear Traders,
Recently I've been playing around with Log/Non-log Fibs and charts. There are a lot of possible fibs we can draw but these three shown here, have most confirmed touches.
We begin with the ATH-ATL (All time high - All time low) this fib is drawn from top of the bull run to december lows in 2018. Because of the time span of this fib this is the most important fib and it should outweigh the other two. For major moves this has been the one to watch. We can see recent runs SF (Swing Fail) got rejected exactly at the .618 level and after that fail it found support on the .382.
This opened it up to draw fibs from the SF to the ATL. On lower time frame it even respected that Log fib at the .886 and .786. In the proces bitcoin created a descending triangle which we broke down of. On that breakdown we found support at the .618 Log ATL-SF.
We created a range between the .618 Log ATL-SF and the Non log fib from Start Run to Swing Fail. The .5 fib of that one co-aligned with the 200DEMA (Daily EMA). This range started to provide liquidity on both sides creating the possibility of a big move.
First we took Lower liquidity and found support on the .382 Non-log SR-SF. This touch down also at the same time validated the lower channel/wedge trendline. When we found support there, for a short moment we saw accumilation take place and we had negative funding for a while (shorts pay longs) indicating a move up.
That move happened and bitcoin retested the structure of the previous range at 9500-10100. After some daily candle closes also that upper trendline could be confirmed. And on that second touch all signs indicated a move down.
That move down was at first a slow bleed but turned into a pretty nasty drop with little bounces on the levels. Untill we saw a bounce at the lower trendline again combined with the .5 fib Log ATL-SF and .236 ATH-ATL.
This pushed us up to test bottom of the previous range again at 7870 which we got a hard rejection from.
For trend to test the upper trendline again it needs to hold the .382 Non log SR-SF level at around 7400. A close below the level increases the probability of bearish continuation and could bring us to test 6600 again and maybe even lower.
Recently I've been playing around with Log/Non-log Fibs and charts. There are a lot of possible fibs we can draw but these three shown here, have most confirmed touches.
We begin with the ATH-ATL (All time high - All time low) this fib is drawn from top of the bull run to december lows in 2018. Because of the time span of this fib this is the most important fib and it should outweigh the other two. For major moves this has been the one to watch. We can see recent runs SF (Swing Fail) got rejected exactly at the .618 level and after that fail it found support on the .382.
This opened it up to draw fibs from the SF to the ATL. On lower time frame it even respected that Log fib at the .886 and .786. In the proces bitcoin created a descending triangle which we broke down of. On that breakdown we found support at the .618 Log ATL-SF.
We created a range between the .618 Log ATL-SF and the Non log fib from Start Run to Swing Fail. The .5 fib of that one co-aligned with the 200DEMA (Daily EMA). This range started to provide liquidity on both sides creating the possibility of a big move.
First we took Lower liquidity and found support on the .382 Non-log SR-SF. This touch down also at the same time validated the lower channel/wedge trendline. When we found support there, for a short moment we saw accumilation take place and we had negative funding for a while (shorts pay longs) indicating a move up.
That move happened and bitcoin retested the structure of the previous range at 9500-10100. After some daily candle closes also that upper trendline could be confirmed. And on that second touch all signs indicated a move down.
That move down was at first a slow bleed but turned into a pretty nasty drop with little bounces on the levels. Untill we saw a bounce at the lower trendline again combined with the .5 fib Log ATL-SF and .236 ATH-ATL.
This pushed us up to test bottom of the previous range again at 7870 which we got a hard rejection from.
For trend to test the upper trendline again it needs to hold the .382 Non log SR-SF level at around 7400. A close below the level increases the probability of bearish continuation and could bring us to test 6600 again and maybe even lower.
Comment:
Comment:
Lower time frame, Double rejection of the MA.
Drop below 7400, watching for that close.
Drop below 7400, watching for that close.
Comment:
Comment:
Quick update I went short on retest of 21EMA 4H and lower trend line. The 4H wick looks pretty nasty, it indicates further downside. Likely price visits lows again to sweep some liquidity, fill positions and then reverse. I still think reversal is likely after we dip because of the negative funding.
Comment:
Took profit of my short in 7300 region and flipped long. probability of a temporary run up is increasing.
Comment:
Comment:
21 4H keeps actin as resistance