We saw a buying climax for Bitcoin at 9980 USD, the failed attempt at 10k caused a sell off down to 8980, which was wave A of a ABC correction. Currently Bitcoin is working on wave B, which will take it to around 9500 USD (see green circles). The current move could also be seen as wave 1 of a impulse up, but for that the prices struggles too much. From there we will start another push down. Fibs, trendlines ans supports point to 8650. But mostly that value is then not reached by Bitcoin because most chartist see that as target. So I am think more like 8770 to 8700 as target.
There it remains to be seen if we are in an accumulation phase and go up after consolidation or move further down, if the consolidation was indeed distribution. My guess is one last move up.
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Detailed view for targets
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I just saw another channel line and added it. If you copy the line from the big channel Bitcoin was in and apply it deeper you get another channel. Incidently that trendline also hits the anticipated target.
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As the new developed structure from other currency pairs does not support the idea so well I added another option to keep in mind. (pink) Have a lookout around what happens at 9500ish
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If the 0.618 (9370) gets rejected a fourth time we go down
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Trying to break it:
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Looks like LPSY:
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Another touch here and may the abc I looked for:
Target: 9580
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long: ETC at 20.04 ETH at 733.7 tight stop losses below trendlines
Greg's count is almost same i posted on 6th may . Isn't ?
MAGICMARK
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Agree, we should go into wave C of an ABC correction up. It's possible though that we have a running flat correction if the rebound is weak, stopping at the 9300 to 9390 mark.
BarrenWaffe
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Interesting point of view. I have an opposite opinion right now. Let me know what you think fellow Wyckoffian :)
nighty2k7
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@BarrenWaffe, your view could also be valid! Yesterdays weak move up suggested mine, todays stronger look yours. A look at other currency pairs starts pointing in your favor. Anyway long till 9500, then I'll have to see.
MAGICMARK
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Good work. Yes, I think the logic of an ABC followed by another impulse down makes sense. One thing though is all that in yellow is creating a right shoulder of a H&S. If that's the case, the target is 1x head height down from neckline. I believe that the head height is around 1000 points, and neckline would be around 9100 to 9200 ... so we could go deeper to 8200 territory. I'd be interested to see if you show any support in that area? Still, need to consider your target support of 8400 to 8600, as there's no guarantees we will get to 8200 level.
ALSO, if we fail on the neckline ... we could cut that yellow impulse down to nothing and bounce up from there! Another possibility to consider!
nighty2k7
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@MAGICMARK, actually a superb idea to look deeper. And indeed at 1.618 of A there we are at 8351, where with 1,272 we are at the mentioned 87xx range:
nighty2k7
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@MAGICMARK, i can give exact numbers if we have reached top of B
MAGICMARK
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@nighty2k7, looking forward to it. I'm guessing it's gonna stop at 9500. Let's see.
nighty2k7
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I will update the charts if the real endpoint values of the moves become finalized