The long from the retest of the lows at 12810 on chart has gone quite well overnight as far Eastern buying
helped to drive price back up towards the start of the rout that began 24 hours earlier out of S Korea. We had a likely
upside limit to his trade in the near term at yesterday's high point around 14200 for a rough 1300 point win but it's
stuggling here somewhat under the weight of a new set of parallels that have emerged overnight...likely to unwind some
more in near term - day traders are cashing out at these levels after a 1300 point win from the lows and causing
Bitcoin to flip around at the highs...
Bitcoin is still not home-free from here but it's close to the border line now. We have to see Bitcoin break above the last
high at 14215 to show that we have a real change in trend back to positive from this point - this is the price action we
have to see later today for Bitcoin to stay good for a retest of the highs..until we see this happen we have no real proof that
the trend has changed decisively - this could be another counter rally in a downtrend so far - beating back and
regaining 14215 and holding up on the retest would give us that proof we need that Bitcoin is good for a retest of the
highs from here.
In near term this pattern is one of consolidation - if not day trading and wishing to run this long for the next few days
(hopefully) raise stops to a little under 13780 on for just under 1000 points profit from the low...this still looks OK
but that green streak below us is uncontested so far...can come all the way back to the start again potentially of the
green streak and to the lower parallel before rallying again if 13700 gives way later...we need to see Bitcoin beat the last
rally high yesterday to immediate left of price to show that Bitcoin is definitely changing trend from here - that will
attract more buyers and take price up to 14500 -14656 range which is the area from which the sell off in S Korea began and
the next potential area to look for a consolidation to occur from. And on downside, if we do get a test of the lower
parallel later on that should be another good opportunity to get long again with stops 50 to 100 below the same line.
would be helpful if this came back to the lower parallel or at least to 13790 again... day traders can buy at the latter level if touched with stops tight underneath though because if it fails it will likely give us a second opportunity to buy again from the lower parallel with stops 50 to 100 max below the line - and if buying at 13790 only look to scalp back to 13900 to begin with...but the longer this consolidation goes on above 13900 the stronger this becomes...because if bears cannot force it lower than here...it can only go one way can't it? Bitcoin only turns back to negative from here if the lower parallel is lost
The next big moment is approaching...Bitcoin has to hold up off the parallel or the entire rally is called back into question and it will begin to unravel again..may then see a retest of the parallel from underside...and if that is then rejected as will be likely, we are back in bear mode for a while and can look to short from that retest with stops above the parallel. Don't buy this blindly though...we need to se it stop and fight on the line....
So we are only looking to go long if 13800 is retaken by the bulls and holds on the retest from above or from lower levels now...until then we stand back whilst day traders have their levels quite clear now, selling from 19790 for scalps and maybe even bigger returns back to 13600 -13550 range being still likely whilst trapped within these parallels