So here, we are ... BTC, tried to get to 8100 on an IHS (see chart). Stalled just over 7.7k territory. Now what?
A few days ago, I posted an idea about a back test of the 7k bottom ... I also didn't like the fact that we didn't quite hit the rising 6 month trend line (now almost 9 months long!), which was sitting at 6.9k. So, I do think we are in the wave that will take us down to that trend line ... by the time we get there, it will be at around 6970 to 7000. Here's why:
- I've gone back and checked all the subwaves of the main drops (20k to 6k, up to 11.7k, down to 6.5k, up to 10k, and now down to ??). - the sub waves are NOT likely ABC corrections ... they seem to be WXY corrections. - an ABC correction is a 5-3-5 system (so check if we have that from 20k to 6k)?? - a WXY correction is a (5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3-5) system ... which fits better for all the main drops and rises. - for this correction I see a WXY pattern forming from 10k ... and we've done (5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3 ...), so I think this is the final (5) .... which I've plotted in the gold line. - note that I like showing alternatives on my chart ... there's one interpretation that shows we did complete the full 5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3-5) system down to 7k ... could be, but I say lower probability, particularly because we didn't touch the bottom of the triangle ... and we still have 2 days left until the close of the cycle on the 5th of each month ... (every reversal ended on 5th of each month, and the market flipped on the 6th from bull to bear, or vice-versa). Also, a back test of 7k bottom is confirmation ... much needed confirmation. So, we can get that now, with the trend line being so close to 7k.
But, if I'm wrong about my primary interpretation, then this is WAVE E, another WXY up to the top of the triangle ... and the next move needs to be up to minimum 8100, and real confirmation is really above 8300 .. it really does need to go there and not much lower than it is now. So, we should know by tomorrow.
In the meantime, I suggest it's going to drop further, and the targets are 7270, 7040, 6980, 6425, 6000, 5400, 4400 ... as we go down that chain of targets, the probability lowers ... but I do have the highest probability as somewhere between 6900 to 7100.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this information for financial decisions. For educational purposes only.
@CryptoComes, could be ... looks like a H&S could develop, plus we already formed an inverse cup and handle ... probability tips to bears ... but no guarantees!
GabrielVasile
⋅
This is why today I'm bullish
MAGICMARK
⋅
@GabrielVasile, it's possible that it is an ABC correction up. But daily is not a bearish engulfing yet, and that's what I pay attention to most. Also for the first time weekly ichi cloud has been broken to bottom side ... that's a big deal, and daily is still well below cloud ... it could be with all these mixed signals, we bounce between 7300 to 7700 for a while until there is some deciding factor (news). I almost thought the DDOS attack on bitfinex was the fud that was going to bring it down ... surprising it did not.
mnadel01
⋅
I agree its going to 6k, but you think its going to happen faster than it probably will. I wouldn't doubt another rally first
mnadel01
⋅
elliott waves aren't everything
MAGICMARK
⋅
@mnadel01, no they aren't and that's why I don't just rely on them ... this includes ichi cloud data, theories (like 6th of the month reversals), volume change, stoch, daily candle close ... and by the way ... if you look at my chart you'll see I show a 6980 bottom FOR NOW ... then a reversal to probably 9k, then down to finish the correction ... to go from here 7500 to 7000 by tomorrow is EASY .. 500 points can drop in 2 hours. We both know that. And I believe it needs to drop to get at least some short term buyers in who want to profit take higher ... otherwise we will sideways for weeks.
Crypto_Mercy
⋅
This will not go back to 6k
MAGICMARK
⋅
@Miatmisu, please show me the TA. Words are but hot air that make the vocal chord vibrate ... not magical powers.
MAGICMARK
⋅
@Miatmisu, and please do not get me wrong ... yes, it's possible we don't go back to 6k ... but words alone won't stop it.
I have probability that it could go to 6k (or lower), but yes it's possible we bounce from here ... indicators right now say otherwise though.
Daily is very bearish, stoch oversold, volume dropping, red engulfing candle ...