Will Classic EMAs Predict Another Large Drop? A Mid Term Outlook

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This chart is inspired by @DrewR , particularly this chart:

Is Bitcoin             in for another large ~45% drop? Sure looks that way. 300-315 still a key zone to watch, but bears are invigorated with a recent break of a key low, 340. 10/21 EMAs have had a good track record since the November 2013 rally. 1st touch/cross = reversal soon, 2nd cross = reversal. Although 275 is a key low and another key level, 260 (April 2013 ATH             ) is just below, I think it will be broken because it is too clean a price level. Think about it, if you were a market mover, how would you get people to panic? By breaking psychological price levels.

Also Litecoin has broken all post November 2013 lows which may give further indication that Bitcoin             is in for a deep dive.

Look at the chart for more comments. If you like, leave a thumbs up. Thank you.
We could see a repeat. Have a look and see what I'm talking about:

My opinion of what is to come this weekend and the next weekend: http://i.imgur.com/nWFiAOz.jpg

Compare with the LTC/BTC chart. However, this chart is not as detailed with time frame and prices. This is only to show the potential pattern repeat in both LTC/BTC and BTC/USD: http://i.imgur.com/RvHtD6Q.png
Jameve ProwdClown
Hello!! Thanks for the comment. I am not too sure on direction at the moment however this chart reflects my current thoughts:

There is big overhead resistance now in the 250s and 260s. Bears have been slamming the price down every time a healthy rally has assembled. Is it time for a longer term trend change? It's too early to say really.

I have noticed a pattern. For the past 2 significant lows before $166 ($340 and $275) there has been a quick rally then a retrace to the order of 61.8-70.5% then after some settling down (consolidation) there is another move up, bigger than the first rally. These charts should help understand what I mean:

Interesting since the $166 low and rally to $315, $210 denotes the 70.5% retracement level which has held so far, for several weeks actually:

so you can make of that what you will.

Also, I am somewhat disturbed by the fact that the daily 10/21 ema did not touch with the $315 pump, see here:
Jameve Jameve
I like to default to bear if I am not sure on direction since bitcoin has been bear longer term
Apologies for being slow getting back to you. I've had a lot going on today.

Not a bad Idea to default to bear when the market is bearish. I pretty much move the way the market wants to move myself. I don't have enough coin to be a whale. Maybe someday...
+1 Reply
By the way, like the time and effort put into this analysis!

Yes, I can see what you are saying about the daily 10/21 ema not touching the $315 pump line. Just a lot of consolidation going on under the resistance. I feel a good portion of that resistance is miners waiting for the right price. I'm fortunate to have enough cash in reserves to pay for power while waiting for a higher price. I believe a good portion of that resistance is like myself as a miner.

I also feel that resistance is what keeps the consolidation where it is and prevents a bull run just like you do. This, obviously, shows bulls in protection mode to avoid losing value on a potential pump. The bears are protecting as well by not dumping out of fear of giving their coin away too cheap. It's times like these that makes one want to go back to trading some pairs on FOREX.
+1 Reply
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