Post SR Analysis - An observation of 10 months of data

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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I've been looking at the 1 day tick chart for BTC/USD following the massive drop we saw yesterday and I think we are now starting to get enough time with actual volume and price movement to see some reliable lines of support/resistance appearing.

I'm not going to make a short term price prediction as this is more of an observation chart. The $ values quoted here are more ranges as these are day ticks.

There are three long term lines:

The red line at $65 looks to be the reliable bottom support, it has held twice now amid heavy selling. If we break that though, it could be back to $30 or lower I would guess.

The blue line at $150 looks to be a pretty solid resistance, again having held three times (just before the April spike, in May and again at the start of September)

The green line at $165/166 (could be $170) I would guess hold as a secondary resistance; having done so just before the spike in April and again just after. We haven't broken $150 yet to find out if will hold again.

Like the red line, if we break this green line it would be very significant. There could be another frenzy to $250 followed by a crash, this would be unlikely I would guess, instead I think it would start another sideways/slowly upward movement with the green ($166) and blue ($150) acting as the support. Possibly the next resistance after that would be $250 but who knows - We are in uncharted territory if we break $170 and it stays there.

You'll also notice a trend line starting from the low of $65 in July - This seems to offer good support for the rise thereafter, being broken only once in early September at which point the intra-lines (orange) offered support at $121 before the price went back to being supported by the trend line for a while.

The orange lines, offer a mixture of support/resistance on multiple occasions to form price bands that seem to last a week or two during a longer trend (there is another at about $90 that isn't on there). Recently the price was supported by one of these at $133 in late September. The $144 line then offered resistance (as is has done before) before the big fall on the 2nd.

The fall was support at the $121 level, which has offered support and resistance in the past, with a dead support at $109.

We now need to see what happens around $130 - 135 and whether we break above this next intra-resistance line. If we do the consolidation that was happening around $140 will hopefully continue before another rise. If we don't then probably bounce around $120 - $130 or even fall down to $100-110 however I don't see the price breaking the $100 level as that has typically had a fair amount of buying volume at that level (it's a very good psychology barrier).
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