Post SR Analysis - An observation of 10 months of data

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
124 0 0
I've been looking at the 1 day tick chart for BTC/USD following the massive drop we saw yesterday and I think we are now starting to get enough time with actual volume and price movement to see some reliable lines of support/resistance appearing.

I'm not going to make a short term price prediction as this is more of an observation chart. The $ values quoted here are more ranges as these are day ticks.

There are three long term lines:

The red line at $65 looks to be the reliable bottom support, it has held twice now amid heavy selling. If we break that though, it could be back to $30 or lower I would guess.

The blue line at $150 looks to be a pretty solid resistance, again having held three times (just before the April             spike, in May and again at the start of September)

The green line at $165/166 (could be $170) I would guess hold as a secondary resistance; having done so just before the spike in April             and again just after. We haven't broken $150 yet to find out if will hold again.

Like the red line, if we break this green line it would be very significant. There could be another frenzy to $250 followed by a crash, this would be unlikely I would guess, instead I think it would start another sideways/slowly upward movement with the green ($166) and blue ($150) acting as the support. Possibly the next resistance after that would be $250 but who knows - We are in uncharted territory if we break $170 and it stays there.

You'll also notice a trend line starting from the low of $65 in July - This seems to offer good support for the rise thereafter, being broken only once in early September at which point the intra-lines (orange) offered support at $121 before the price went back to being supported by the trend line for a while.

The orange lines, offer a mixture of support/resistance on multiple occasions to form price bands that seem to last a week or two during a longer trend (there is another at about $90 that isn't on there). Recently the price was supported by one of these at $133 in late September. The $144 line then offered resistance (as is has done before) before the big fall on the 2nd.

The fall was support at the $121 level, which has offered support and resistance in the past, with a dead support at $109.

We now need to see what happens around $130 - 135 and whether we break above this next intra-resistance line. If we do the consolidation that was happening around $140 will hopefully continue before another rise. If we don't then probably bounce around $120 - $130 or even fall down to $100-110 however I don't see the price breaking the $100 level as that has typically had a fair amount of buying volume at that level (it's a very good psychology barrier).
United States
United Kingdom
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Priority Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out